Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | -135 |
| Marlins Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.tv |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Phillies are so close to the playoffs they can almost taste it. The quest for postseason baseball continues on Thursday night in Miami, where the Phillies can secure a sweep of the Marlins.
Noah Syndergaard has quietly pitched well for the Phillies in his return to the National League East, and we may just have to trust him here against the Fish in our three-leg same-game parlay.
The Parlay (+320):
- Noah Syndergaard 4+ Strikeouts
- Jean Segura to Get a Hit
- Over 7.5 Runs
Same-Game Parlay – Phillies vs. Marlins
Noah Syndergaard 4+ Strikeouts
In the last 14 days, the Marlins haven't made a whole lot of contact. They rank second in the league with a 27.2% Strikeout Rate and second with a 13.4% Swinging Strike Rate.
We've seen this translate to strikeouts for Phillies starters, no matter the name. Bailey Falter had four punchouts on Tuesday night, and Kyle Gibson got seven on Wednesday. Syndergaard should get us to this magic number on Thursday.
While Syndergaard isn't exactly known for getting swings and misses these days, the Fish are a special kind of inept at the dish right now. On top of that, he struck out four Marlins the last time he saw them in August and punched out eight in July as a member of the Angels. This is a very reasonable first leg.
Jean Segura to Get a Hit
This second leg of our parlay is even more reasonable. Segura has hit .353 over his last nine games, totaling 12 hits in 35 plate appearances. Over this stretch, he's gone hitless in just one game. One!
That leads me to believe here that a -215 line on Segura to secure one hit is a massive underprice and makes for another solid leg of this parlay. We haven't even discussed that Pablo Lopez is falling apart, either.
Lopez has pitched to a 6.52 ERA in the second half of the season and is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 innings against the Mets.
Over 7.5 Runs
Speaking of Lopez, the over has cashed in four of his last five starts and is 17-10-1 this season for a return of 5.45 units. That's the result of some truly awful performances on the mound.
I do trust Syndergaard against this Marlins offense, but it's worth noting that he posted a 4.40 ERA in August and a 5.23 ERA in September. He's allowed at least three earned runs in his last three starts and hasn't had a scoreless outing since April 9th.
It seems nearly impossible he walks out of here clean, and it seems equally impossible that the Lopez navigates a red-hot Phillies offense and escapes unscathed. I think we see a good deal of scoring here.
