MLB Same-Game Parlay for Tuesday, August 30: How to Bet Mariners vs. Tigers

Mariners vs Tigers Odds

The Action Network is promoting Same-Game Parlays as we approach postseason play. We're looking to combine a few selections from certain games so we can cash a huge payout.

I'm looking to create a storyline when I bet an SGP. What is the game script going to look like and how can we use our inferred information to our advantage?

I'm looking at this Tigers game and I see a rock fight between one overvalued pitcher and one undervalued pitcher.

You can grab this SGP at PointsBet. Let's break it down.

The Parlay (+600):

• Detroit Tigers ML (+150)
• Under 8 (-121)
• Matt Manning Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Same-Game Parlay – Mariners vs. Tigers

Detroit Tigers ML (+150)

I'm not buying what George Kirby is selling. His 3.32 ERA looks good, as does his 3.30 xERA and 3.27 xFIP. But his batted-ball statistics don't, as he ranks below the 20th percentile of pitchers in avg. exit velocity allowed (89.7mph), hard-hit rate (40.3%), and barrel rate (9%).

Plus, Kirby's stuff isn't all that good. He ranks in the 33rd percentile in fastball spin rate and in the 16th percentile in curveball spin rate. His fastball has produced results, but his secondary pitches have been poor (especially his cutter).

In the meantime, Matt Manning is becoming the ideal post-hype buy guy. The big-boy righty has always intrigued prospects with a mid-90s fastball that plays thanks to great extension (94th percentile) and a slider-curveball secondary arsenal.

Since returning from injury, Manning has made five high-quality starts, pitching to a 2.40 ERA over a whopping 30 innings. He just threw six shutout inning against the Giants and seven shutout innings against the Rays earlier this month.

That secondary arsenal has always been inconsistent, but you can tell he's starting to figure it out. He's accumulated a combined -11 Run Value between his four-seam, slider, and curveball.

The Tigers are the worst offense in baseball. But the Mariners have been below average from a run production standpoint in August, minimizing that advantage. Plus, the Tigers have a top-10 bullpen ERA (3.38) and a top-15 defense (26 DRS).

The Tigers have also won four of the last five matchups against Seattle. Detroit can, and should, do it again today.

Under 8 (-120)

I believe Matt Manning will shut down the Mariners today. He's pitching hot and he hasn't been too lucky, with a very low avg. exit velocity allowed (86.7mph) and a super-low hard-hit rate allowed (29.2%).

I don't like Kirby, but this Tigers lineup is pathetic. They have the lowest wRC+ in the league and have scored the fewest runs. Not a single Detroit batter in the regular nine-man lineup has an OPS+ above 100.

I mentioned Detroit has a top-10 bullpen ERA, and Seattle does too (3.35). And I mentioned Detroit has a top-15 defense, and Seattle has a top-six defense (41 DRS).

Neither team should score today, and a few books have already dropped the total to 7.5. I adore this under.

Matt Manning Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

As Manning's secondary stuff has improved, his strikeouts have popped. In his last four starts, Manning has posted:

• 8/7 vs TBR: 95 pitches, 31% CSW, 7 Ks
• 8/13 @ CHW: 86 pitches, 24% CSW, 5 Ks
• 8/19 vs LAA: 90 pitches, 30% CSW, 6 Ks
• 8/24 vs SFG: 95 pitches, 40% CSW, 8 Ks

Manning has skyrocketed up the plate discipline leaderboards, now ranking above league average in both Swinging-Strike rate and CSW rate.

The matchup should be fine. The Mariners have struck out at the seventh-highest rate against RHPs over the past month (24%) and have allowed the last three opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout totals.

Look for a huge day from Manning today.