Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Odds
| Red Sox Odds | -122 |
| Reds Odds | +104 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-112/-108) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Tuesdays are always big for Major League Baseball. All 30 teams suit up and take the field today, including a doubleheader between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers.
It's the perfect opportunity to find a game and cook up a Same-Game Parlay.
When betting an SGP, we're looking to craft an easily predictable game script and then bet the legs to make that game script happen.
Tonight's Boston-Cincinnati game features two of the most undervalued rookie pitchers in baseball.
We can take advantage of that with this Same-Game Parlay.
The Parlay (+353):
- Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)
- Nick Lodolo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-156)
- Under 8.5 (-108)
Same-Game Parlay — Red Sox vs Reds
Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)
Bello has some of the best stuff in baseball. His sinker and fastball both sit in the high-90s — sometimes touching triple-digits — and he has a disgusting changeup.
That changeup has some solid arm-side run and simply fools batters. Bello's changeup has allowed just a .200 SLG and a 14.8% Hard Hit Rate while forcing a 45.6% Whiff Rate.
After a disastrous start, Bello has really started to settle in. He's known for his strikeout and ground-ball ability, and it's shown over the last two months.
Brayan Bello dating back to July 29th:
30.1 IP
2.97 ERA/2.32 FIP
57.8% GB%
9.8 K/9
3.9 BB/9
0 HR AllowedHis growth since debuting has been massive. Can’t help but dream about his potential moving forward. pic.twitter.com/hNRoYirknT
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) September 15, 2022
Bello has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in four of his last five games, including three straight.
The Reds have posted just an 83 wRC+ over the past month and are 28th in Weighted Changeup Runs Created this season (-12.4).
I'm looking for a big start from Bello tonight.
Nick Lodolo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-156)
Lodolo is likely better known than Bello. He's consistently produced results since entering the Reds' rotation, specifically in forcing strikeouts.
Lodolo is averaging over 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His 30.3% strikeout rate ranks in the 87th percentile of qualified pitchers. He's cashed this number in three straight starts, including two straight of 11 strikeouts and zero walks.
Nick Lodolo is the first Red and fourth LHP in MLB since 1901 with 11+ strikeouts and 0 walks in consecutive starts.
(h/t @jluckhaupt) pic.twitter.com/iShzluxnUl
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 14, 2022
Lodolo's curveball is his big swing-and-miss pitch, forcing a 44.5% Whiff Rate on the pitch.
However, his sinker has been just as effective, posting a -6 Run Value on the pitch.
Boston ranks 23rd in Weighted Curveball Runs Created (-4.8) and 28th in Weighted Sinker Runs Created (-9.9). Plus, the lineup ranks eighth in strikeout rate against southpaws over the past month (25.7%).
I'm expecting a massive start from Lodolo, perhaps another double-digit strikeout performance.
Under 8.5 (-108)
If we're expecting two big starts from these pitchers, we can safely assume there's an edge on the under.
However, I think these pitchers might still be undervalued in the markets.
Lodolo has a 3.81 ERA, but a 3.63 xERA and a 3.29 xFIP. The lefty has a 2.72 ERA and a 2.53 FIP over his last six starts. The positive regression train is pulling into Lodolo Station.
Meanwhile, Bello has a 5.10 ERA this season, but a 3.77 xERA and a 2.76 FIP. He's also seen positive regression, but I think the markets haven't caught up to him just yet.
Expect a low-scoring, high-strikeout game in this one.
