Here are my projected saves leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at bet365:
We might find some value in the saves market with the projected leader and favorite Edwin Diaz out for the season.
Similar to the pitcher wins market, I'm merely looking for players that are mispriced relative to their projection bucket, and three closers on potentially playoff-bound teams — Devin Williams, Clay Holmes, and Pete Fairbanks — seem mispriced.
Unfortunately, the odds for all three pitchers have decreased since I bet them (at +2000, +3300, and +8000, respectively). Still, based on their projections alone, they should be lined closer to +1500, +2000, and +5000, respectively — so there is still room to bet each.
While Williams is locked into a closer role, he's on the team projected for the fewest wins of the three.
Holmes is the head of a committee in the Bronx — since Aaron Boone won't always save his best reliever for the ninth inning. Still, I have the Yankees projected as the best team in the American League, and if Holmes does emerge as the full-time closer (2.41 xERA in 2022), he'll offer sensational value.
Fairbanks was my favorite bet a few weeks ago, but his velocity is down in spring training. Like Holmes, he is the head of a committee in Tampa Bay and the Rays don't necessarily save their closer for the final three outs.
Fairbanks was ridiculous in 24 innings last season (1.03 xERA) and arguably the best pitcher in baseball after returning from injury. His price is attractive considering his elite skillset. Still, he's never pitched more than 42 innings in an entire season — and may already be hurt again. Otherwise, I would have bet more at these odds.
Most Saves Bets
- Pete Fairbanks (+6600, 0.1u) at bet365
- Clay Holmes (+2800, 0.1u) at bet365
- Devin Williams (+1800, 0.1u) at PointsBet
