Wiseguys spent last night in Green Dot City, going 2-1 with their Tuesday plays. The key win was the Nationals-Braves contrarian over 8.5. Washington took a 5-2 lead into the bottom of the eighth inning, making over bettors sweat. But then Austin Riley hit a two-run bomb to make it 5-4 and cash the over.
Nothing better than a clutch back door cover!
After analyzing Wednesday’s massive 14-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Tigers (moved from +131 to +110)
This putrid matchup between two American League cellar dwellers is shaping up to be the biggest pros vs. Joes game of the night.
The Orioles (17-38) opened as relatively heavy -142 home favorites. Even though they're the Orioles, the public is still backing them, mostly due to the pitching matchup (John Means 5-4, 2.96 ERA vs Ryan Carpenter 0-2, 9.00 ERA).
However, despite Baltimore receiving 73% of bets, they line has plummeted more than 20 cents to Birds -118. This massive reverse line movement was as a direct result of sharps pummeling the Tigers (20-32).
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we've tracked three big moves on DET at +123, +120 and +117. This overload of sharp action from respected players caused the Tigers to fall from +131 all the way down to +110.
We haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Baltimore.
The Tigers won the series opener 3-0 last night, which makes them a match for the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win tonight (+156.88 units won since 2005).
Detroit is a road dog with a super high total (10), a valuable spot historically, and Todd Tichenor is behind the plate. Home teams have lost -14.46 units with Tichenor calling balls and strikes since 2005.
Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros
8:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Cubs (moved from +115 to -103)
Average Joes love betting home teams, favorites and teams on winning streaks. The Astros check off every box tonight. But wiseguys aren't falling into the conventional wisdom, public bias trap. They're buying low on the Cubs to steal a victory tonight and avoid the sweep.
This Interleague battle opened with the Astros listed as short -125 home favorites. Currently 58% of bets are backing Houston, yet the line has moved away from the 'Stros (-125 to -105) and toward the Cubbies (+115 to -103).
Why would the Houston price get cheaper if the public is already on them? No, books aren't being nice to casual bettors. They moved the number in order to mitigate their risk as a result of big liability on the Cubs.
We've tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on Chicago, with pros crushing CHI at +105, +100 and -102.
An added bonus for Goodfellas sweating the Cubs: CB Bucknor is the home plate ump tonight. Since 2005, home teams have lost -21.45 units with Bucknor calling balls and strikes.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Rockies (moved from +115 to +109)
The Rockies won the series opener 6-2 last night. Casual bettors take one look at tonight's pitching matchup (Robbie Ray 3.26 ERA vs Jeff Hoffman 8.10 ERA) and that's all they need to know. Snakes are a lock to bounce back and win tonight!
Not so fast, say the pros.
This NL West showdown opened with the D'Backs listed as -124 road favorites. Despite receiving just under 70% of bets, Arizona has fallen to -119.
This may not seem significant– it's only 5 cents — but it's notable because they line is falling away from the lopsided popular side, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the Rockies.
We've tracked a trio of bet signals on COL at +118, +117 and +116. The Rockies also enjoy a positive smart money discrepancy, as they're only receiving 33% of bets but 47% of dollars. This means that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the home dog.
