Wiseguys couldn't catch a break on Monday as they struck out on all three of their plays. The Cardinals-Pirates under 9.5 was the back-breaker. The game was tied 2-2 entering extra innings and then both teams combined for seven runs in the 10th. St. Louis won, 6-5. Talk about a Hall-of-Fame bad beat.
Overall, the storyline of Monday night was overs. It's been an over season (thanks, juiced ball), but unders had been bouncing back bigly in July. Until last night.
Going into yesterday's slate of games, #MLB unders had profited +10.8 units since the All-Star Game.
On Monday, however, they went 0-9-1 for -9 units.
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 23, 2019
Unders are now 700-728 (49%) on the season, losing 63.44 units.
After analyzing Tuesday’s loaded 15-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.
>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
San Diego Padres (47-52) at New York Mets (45-54)
7:10 p.m. ET | Chris Paddack (6-4, 2.70 ERA) vs. Jason Vargas (4-5, 4.25 ERA)
Sharps (professional bettors) and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are on opposite sides of this over/under. In betting circles, this is called a Pros-vs.-Joes matchup.
With overs sweeping the board yesterday, the public is fat and happy and has no reason not to keep riding the train. However, sportsbooks got crushed and assuredly set lines higher (shaded the over) today, knowing the public will bet the over no matter what. This provides wiseguys increased value to buy low on artificially inflated contrarian unders.
This total opened at 8.5, which used to be considered a high total but is considered low in today's game (thanks again, juiced ball). Currently 60% of bets are taking the over, but 66% of dollars are on the under. Meanwhile, we've seen this line tumble from 8.5 to 8.
Adding it all up, this means smart under money hit the house, forcing books to drop the total in order to entice over buyback and thereby limit their risk and liability.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we've tracked three steam and reverse line moves on the under, all coming at 8.5. We haven't seen a single conflicting over move. In other words, sharps are united on the under.
One reason wiseguys love the under tonight (aside from getting a rare Chris Paddack contrarian under opportunity) is the weather. The forecast at Citi Field calls for relatively cool temperatures (low 70s), mostly cloudy skies with light rain and, best of all, wind blowing in from right-center at 5 mph.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 8)
Miami Marlins (36-62) at Chicago White Sox (45-52)
8:10 p.m. ET | Caleb Smith (5-4, 3.25 ERA) vs. Dylan Covey (1-4, 5.61 ERA)
At first glance, this looks like an easy White Sox play. Chicago has a better record, enjoys home-field advantage at a plus-money price and just took the series opener last night, 9-1.
But the public sees a starting-pitcher edge with Miami and, as a result, doesn't know which way to go.
Fine by the sharps. They'll gladly capitalize on public indecision and jump on the ChiSox at home against the fourth-worst team in the league.
This interleague matchup opened with Miami listed as a -120 road favorite and Chicago a +111 dog. Moneyline bets are split right down the middle with a slight edge to Miami (52% of bets), yet we've seen the line move toward the White Sox (+111 to +107).
We've tracked three smart money bet signals on this game, all coming down on the White Sox (+121, +115 and +112 at various books across the market). This overload of sharp action has kept the line moving toward Chicago from the start.
Gary Cederstrom is behind the plate, which provides another edge to Chicago. Since 2005, home teams have won 11.44 units with Cederstrom as the home plate ump.
This "short home dog with line movement" spot has been a moneymaker for sharps historically. According to our Bet Labs database, home teams between +105 and +115 with at least one cent of line movement toward them have won 53.81 units since 2005.
A couple more edges to Chicago: the White Sox have a losing record overall but play well at home (26-20) and have a winning record against lefties (17-16).
Sharp angle: White Sox (moved from +111 to +107)
Chicago Cubs (54-46) at San Francisco Giants (51-50)
9:45 p.m. ET | Yu Darvish (3-4, 4.46 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 3.58 ERA)
You can't stop the San Francisco Giants. You can only hope to contain them.
The Giants won the series opener, 5-4, last night, cashing as slight dogs (-101) with very little public support (38% of bets). The win pushed San Fran above .500 for the first time this season. The Giants are now an absurd 15-3 in July and the public is starting to take notice.
That means now is the perfect time for sharps to sell on good news and bet against them.
San Francisco opened as a short -115 home favorite tonight, with Chicago a -105 dog. The public sees a streaking team at home with its ace on the mound and nearly 70% of bets are backing the Giants. However, we've seen this line completely flip away from San Fran (-115 to +103) and toward the Cubs (-105 to -113).
Wiseguys crushed the Cubs at +102, -101 and -103, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves. We haven't tracked a single conflicting play (or buyback) on the Giants.
An added bonus for Cubs bettors: Victor Carapazza will be behind the plate tonight. Since 2005, home teams have lost 11.25 units with Carapazza calling balls and strikes.
Chicago also matches a pair of profitable Bet Labs systems: Non-Division Road Favorites (60.4%, +13.27 units this season) and Favorites Sub 50% bets (57.7%, +8.57 units).
Sharp angle: Cubs (moved from -105 to -113)
