Happy Friday! We're 24 hours away from the 2018 college football season. But sharps are still glued to MLB.
Historically, Friday is the best day of the week to bet against the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week (and getting their latest paychecks), Average Joes are more likely to get down on games, leading to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value for the pros.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:07 p.m and 8:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App or check out our MLB live odds page to get real-time data and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays
- Sharp angle: Over 9
- First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
We're seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this Interleague total. The public sees Jake Arrieta (9-8, 3.25 ERA) on the mound and automatically thinks low scoring game. But sharps are blasting a contrarian over here.
The Under is getting 67% of bets but the Over is getting 54% of dollars. Despite the heavy under betting, the total has remained frozen at 9, indicating over liability.
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
- Sharp angle: Twins +114
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Minnesota came up huge for the wiseguys Thursday night, beating Oakland 6-4 and cashing as a +158 dog with only 20% of bets. Oakland has the fourth-best record in MLB (76-52), but has now lost two straight.
The public says there's no way the losing skid reaches three games. But sharps aren't buying the Gambler's Fallacy here. Despite getting less than 20% of bets, the Twins have moved from +126 to +114, indicating sharp reverse line movement.
Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate tonight, a profitable "home" ump since 2005 (home teams have won at a 57.3% rate and produced +10.73 units).
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
- Sharp angle: Over 8.5
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Two starting pitchers with low ERAs (Joe Musgrove 3.31 and Wade Miley 2.18) in a game with a high total. Easy under, right? If it looks too good to be true, it is. Despite 67% of bets going under, the total has remained frozen at 8.5 and the juice has trended over (-110 to -115).
This indicates over liability, since the next will more likely be up to 9 instead of down to 8.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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