Wiseguys posted their fourth straight winning day on Thursday, cashing both of their Under plays (Angels-Astros and Mariners-Athletics) en route to a 2-0 night. Now it's onto Friday.
Historically, today is the best day of the week to bet against the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week, Average Joes are more likely to get down on games, leading to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value for the pros.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 3:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App or check out our MLB live odds page to get real-time data and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
- Sharp angle: Under 8.5
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors take a quick look at total (8.5) and the ERAs of the two starting pitchers (Jose Quintana 4.33 and Nick Pivetta 4.76) and say Over all day. But sharps are buying low on a contrarian Under.
Despite 72% of bets taking the Over, the total has fallen from 9 to 8.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the total to hand out a better number to public Over backers?
Because Goodfellas came in hard on the Under, creating big liability. Pros at JustBet hammered the Under 8.5. Even though the total has fallen from 9 to 8.5, the books are still juicing up the 8.5 Under -112, indicating it may even fall to 8.
The Under also fits the profitable Bet Labs system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+187.00 units since 2005).
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
- Sharp angle: Under 9
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
The Red Sox won Game 1 of the series last night, 9-4, with the Over cashing easily. With the stacked Boston lineup facing rookie Michael Kopech, public bettors are going back to the Over well tonight.
But wiseguys are eyeing a contrarian Under. The Over is receiving 63% of bets, but the total has remained frozen, and the juice has moved from 9 Over -115 to 9 Under -115.
This indicates smart money on the Under. Sharps at CRIS and BetOnline hammered the Under 9. An added bonus for Under backers: the wind is blowing in heavily from right-center at 10 mph.
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Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
- Sharp angle: Padres +114
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Fathers came up huge for the wiseguys last night, beating the Rockies, 3-2, in 13 innings as +133 dogs with only 14% of bets. Gambler's Fallacy says there's no way San Diego wins again tonight.
But sharps are back on the Fathers Train. In the most lopsided game of the night, San Diego is getting only 18% of bets but has moved from +134 to +117, signaling massive reverse line movement in its favor. Pros at SIA and Carib got down hard on SD +110.
The Padres also fit two profitable Bet Labs systems: Bad Team After Win (+169.61 units since 2005) and Betting Against the Public Report (+178.97 units since 2005).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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