As it pertains to reading sharp action in sports betting, comparing the percentage of bets to the percentage of money hitting each side of a bet is a great starting point.
Sure, big bets can come from anyone, but they're more likely to come from sharps. So, over a large sample, picking out teams with a higher money than bet percentage is usually going to put you on the sharp side.
And tonight, three games are standing out as perfect examples of that.
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Cardinals vs. Reds
6:40 p.m. ET
Both the moneyline and over/under betting splits have been eye-catching in this NL Central matchup. Let's start with the former.
With the Reds opening as fairly significant favorites (a market consensus around -145), bettors have been almost perfectly split on how to play the moneyline. As it stands now, 51% are taking the underdog Cardinals. But even though Reds bettors have been the slight minority, they've generated almost all the money hitting this line (92%).
The Reds have also triggered a Sports Insights Bet Signal, an indicator of market movement caused by sharp action, and as a result, are now listed between -160 and -170 across the market.
As for the total, while 64% of bettors are taking the under — with a pair of sub-2.00 ERAs hitting the mound — 68% of the money has landed on the over. Another two Sports Insights Bet Signals have hit the over, confirming that betting split to be an indication of sharp action, and the total has been bumped up from 8 to 8.5 since opening.
Sharp angles: Reds (moved from -145 to -161), Over (moved from 8 to 8.5)
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Braves vs. Red Sox
7:30 p.m. ET
The biggest bet-vs.-money discrepancy on a moneyline comes from tonight's Braves-Red Sox matchup at Fenway.
Obviously, these teams are having quite a different 2020 experience. Atlanta is holding up to its preseason expectation at first place in the NL East (20-14). Boston… not so much. The Sox are now 12-23, in last place in the AL East.
As such, it shouldn't be too surprising to see that 74% of bettors are behind the Braves, who opened around -180 this morning. What's a little more surprising, perhaps, is that those bettors are generating just 25% of actual money.
Another two SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the Red Sox, who, behind those big, sharp bettors, are down from as high as +170 to a current consensus around +150.
Sharp angle: Red Sox (moved from +170 to +150)
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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
9:40 p.m. ET
Another ridiculous discrepancy presents itself on tonight's D-backs-Dodgers total.
While two-thirds of bettors are expecting this game to see at least nine runs, the bigger spenders are not. The 33% of tickets on the under have generated 93% of actual money hitting the total, and in this case, four SI Bet Signals have hit the under.
As a result, this number has dropped from 9 to 8.5 at most books.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8.5)
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