Wiseguys stayed hot yesterday, cashing the Astros under and Braves moneyline en route to a 2-1 Wednesday. Today's board was light to begin with, and two games were additionally postponed due to inclement weather (SEA-CHW and SD-STL). As a result, the public has only a handful of games to choose from, which means higher ticket counts and elevated contrarian value for the sharps.
After analyzing Thursday’s short 8-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics
3:37 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Athletics (moved from +100 to -106)
Despite starting the season with a putrid 2-5 record, the public just can't lay off the defending champion Red Sox, especially at coin-flip price.
But wiseguys know if it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.
This line opened at Boston -120. Currently 60% of bets are taking the Red Sox because "they're due for a win." However, 55% of of dollars are backing Oakland (5-4). This notable bet vs. dollar discrepancy indicates smart money wagers fading the public and betting the home team.
Meanwhile, the line has shifted toward the A's from +100 to -106. Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two big steam and reverse line moves on Oakland, pushing them from a dog to a favorite.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Indians
6:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 7 to 6.5)
When it comes to betting totals, the betting public generally adheres to the following motto: If the total is low bet the over, if the total is high bet the under.
Sharps know this and love to zig when then public zags, knowing they can capitalize on bias, get soft or inflated numbers and place themselves on the side of the house (which we know always wins).
This Jays-Tribe total is the perfect example. The over/under opened at a low 7. Even with ace Trevor Bauer on the mound, Average Joes say "it has to go over."
Not the professionals.
Currently 55% of bets are taking the over, but 67% of dollars are on the under, signaling a massive pros vs. Joes discrepancy, with big wiseguy wagers banking on a low-scoring game.
We also noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the under 7. This overload of smart money created heavy liability for the books and forced them to drop the total down to 6.5.
An added bonus: The wind is swirling toward home plate at 10 mph, creating one of the worst weather ratings for hitters today.
Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves
7:20 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Braves (moved from -115 to -120)
Wiseguys cashed a huge come-from-behind win with the Braves last night (trailed 4-2 in the 8th, scored 4 runs to win 6-4) and they're going back to the well tonight.
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a short -115 home favorite. Nearly 60% of bets are grabbing the plus-money payout with the Cubs, saying "there's no way Chicago gets swept this series." But sharps know to never fall victim to the Gamblers' Fallacy.
However, despite the public taking Chicago, the line has moved further toward Atlanta (-115 to -120), a dead giveaway that sharps are backing the Braves (42% bets, 55% dollars).
We noticed wiseguys get down hard on Atlanta -115, triggering market-wide reverse line movement. We haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Cubs.
