Without the allure of Opening Day, today's baseball board hasn't quite drawn the same action as yesterday's. But while the ticket count from casual bettors may have dropped off, sharps are still all over tonight's games.
They've hit three particularly hard, including two bets on the nightcap between the defending-champion Red Sox and 3-0 Mariners.
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (total has remained at 7)
This total hasn't actually moved off its opening number, but that's not to say that sharps haven't helped to shape it. For starters, a move from 7 to 6.5 is a relatively big one considering how common seven-run games are. But more significantly, it's been the over attracting more bets than the under, so the effect of the under's sharp backing can be seen in the fact that the number hasn't risen.
The 35% of bets on the under have generated 57% of actual money being wagered on the total. That means bigger bettors, the ones more likely to be sharps, are among the minority betting the under. The balanced action also helps to explain the lack of a serious line move.
Sports Insights' Bet Signals have triggered two moves on the under to confirm the sharp action. If more roll in, it would come as no shock to see a more juiced-up under, or even a 6.5-run total listed before first pitch.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from +115 to -105)
While sharps often land on the opposite side from squares, especially in baseball, it would be hard to argue that wiseguys haven't been a part of the 61% of bettors backing the Cards tonight.
After opening as a +115 dog, St. Louis is now locked in a -105 pick'em with the Brewers. And while the Cardinals are the more popular bet, such significant movement probably wouldn't come from a 61% backing by itself.
Those bets, though, have accounted for 78% of money being wagered on the matchup, once again revealing how the bigger, sharper bettors see the game.
Three SI Bet Signals have also hit the Cardinals to just one Milwaukee move. It's worth noting that the lowest Cardinals payout to still attract wiseguy steam was +101. The lone Brewers signal came at -103.
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angles: Mariners (moved from +133 to +123), Under8 (moved from -103 to -115)
The Mariners have started the 2019 season with three straight wins over two teams that combined to win 205 games last season. They've gotta lose tonight, right?
That's unsurprisingly how most of the public feels, as 76% of bettors are behind the Red Sox, making them the most popular team for the second straight night. Despite that, they've fallen from -145 to -136 as sharps aren't buying the "they're due" narrative on Seattle.
They've triggered two Bet Signals on the Mariners at +138 and +131, enough to force oddsmakers to drop the line even though it gives the heavy majority of players a better payout.
Professional action has also hit the total, as evidenced by another two SI Bet Signals, as well as a ridiculous bets vs. money discrepancy. While only 24% of bettors are playing the under, they've generated 85% of money being bet on the total.
That's caused oddsmakers to juice up the under from its opener, forecasting a potential move to 7.5.
