The betting public might be experiencing a case of the Mondays today, as they're forced back to work and have no Stanley Cup playoffs to sweat, only one NBA playoff game and a light baseball board. But wiseguys don't mind. They see quality, not quantity, and have promptly moved lines on a trio of MLB games tonight.
After analyzing Monday’s short 10-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
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Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
9:45 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Giants (moved from +152 to +122)
The most lopsided game of the night also features the biggest line move. And the line is moving away from the popular side — a sure sign that it's been pummeled by sharp action.
The Braves (25-22) boast a better record than the Giants (20-25), just went 4-2 on their 6-game homestand and now send ace rookie Mike Soroka (4-1, 0.98 ERA) to the hill against a southpaw pitcher making his season debut (Andrew Suarez).
So, of course, the public is sprinting to the window to bet Atlanta as fast as they can.
The Braves opened as heavy -165 road favorites. However, despite receiving nearly 80% of bets, Atlanta has tumbled to -122. Why would the oddsmakers drop the price on the popular side if the public is already hammering the Braves?
Because sharps are getting down hard on San Fran, which just took two of three at Arizona.
The G-Men are getting only 22% of bets but 51% of dollars, a clear indication that big, sharp wagers are buying low on the home dog.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we also saw two big steam and reverse line moves on the Giants, with sharps crushing the home team at +154. This influx of smart money forced books to drop San Fran all the way down to +122.
We haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Braves.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
10:07 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Angels (moved from +112 to -122)
Sharps really love the Halos tonight.
This game opened with Minnesota listed as a short -121 road favorite. Recreational bettors see the Twins' sparkling 30-16 record and that's all they need to go. Lay the moneyline price. Twinkies all day.
But, as always, Goodfellas are selling on good news, capitalizing on public bias and causing massive line movement toward the unpopular dog.
Despite 71% of bets taking Minnesota, the line has plummeted away from the Twins (-121 to +112) and toward the Angels (+112 to -121).
What caused this massive reverse line movement that flipped Los Angeles from a dog to a favorite?
Sharps, of course.
Mike Trout and company are receiving only 28% of bets but a whopping 65% of dollars, a clear sign that big pro bettors are on their side tonight.
The Angels also find themselves in a profitable historical spot, as they fit a top Bet Labs System, New Series, All Signs Point to the Opponent (+189.61 units since 2005).
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 7 to 6.5)
Sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun based on bias and gut instinct) are largely on the same page when it comes to this late-night NL West over/under.
This total opened at a low 7. Normally the public will hammer an over anytime it's this low, saying to themselves "it has to go over." However, with two stud pitchers facing off (Luke Weaver's 3.16 ERA vs. Chris Paddack's 1.99), we're actually seeing 66% of bets take the under.
However, that 66% of under bets has also accounted for more than 90% of dollars, which means it's not just five-dollar average-Joe bets sweating a low scoring game, it's also heavy dime wagers ($1,000 bets) from pro bettors.
We tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves on the under. This overload of respected money forced oddsmakers to drop the total down to 6.5.
An added bonus for pros and joes backing the under: The wind is blowing in at 6 to 10 mph at Petco Park.
