Wiseguys swept the board yesterday, going a perfect 3-0 with their Wednesday plays. Now it's on to Thursday, which is undoubtedly the worst day of the week for baseball bettors.
The board is short and littered with weird, early start times, plus it's a getaway day for teams, which often leads to pitching changes and position players sitting out for rest. As a result, sharps will remain extra disciplined and pick their spots today.
After analyzing Thursday’s short 10-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.
>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 8)
In this marquee matchup between American League elites, public bettors see two red hot lineups and a relatively low total and that's all they need to know to take the over.
Fine by the sharps. They'll gladly capitalize on public bias and back a contrarian under with two low-ERA pitchers toeing the rubber (Martin Perez 7-1, 2.95 ERA vs. Charlie Morton 5-0, 2.54 ERA).
This over/under opened at 8, but heavy betting on the over (73% of bets) pushed the total up to 8.5. As soon as the hook was available (the extra half run), wiseguys immediately hammered the under 8.5 and triggered a pair of reverse line moves that forced the number back down to 8. Interestingly, we saw another under move at 8, which means some sharps still see value on the under even though it fell a half run.
With only 27% of bets (but 41% of dollars) taking the under, it also matches one of our top Bet Labs PRO systems: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+193.22 units won since 2005). Historically, when two elite teams go head-to-head it leads to tighter, lower scoring games.
The game is also being played at Tropicana Field, a top under stadium due to the dome and poor sight lines. Since 2005, the under has cashed 53.5% of the time at the Trop. That number improves to 54.8% in non-division games.
Cleveland Indians @ Chicago White Sox
8:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8.5)
The red-hot Indians' bats just scored 14 runs in a big win against the Red Sox yesterday. Now they travel to the windy city to face a lefty with a 7.71 ERA (Manny Banuelos). Sounds like an easy over, right?
This AL Central over/under opened at 9. Currently 60% of bets are taking the under, yet the total has fallen down to 8.5. Why would the books drop the line to give public over bettors an easier shot at covering?
Because they got hit with an overload of smart under money, creating big liability that forced them to adjust the total a half run downward.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed a trio of steam moves on the Under 9. It's important to note that none of the under moves have come at 8.5, which means getting the 9 is key. That way a 9-0, 8-1 or 7-2 game pushes instead of loses.
The under also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy, as it's only receiving 40% of bets but a whopping 74% of dollars, further evidence of pros backing a lower-scoring game.
A cherry on top for wiseguys sweating the under: the wind is blowing in from dead center at 5 MPH, hopefully turning first row homers into warning track outs.
