Last week, I introduced the world to the S&K 500, which will see me break down the starting pitchers for any given night.
Tonight, I have one bet, and that’s an over in the Yankees-Guardians matchup.
I have this closer to -120, so just slight value on the number — but Schmidt is flashing a strong buy signal in the S&K500 with a +21.6 Priority Score. He was limited to 73 pitches in his season debut (coming off shoulder fatigue), but looked sharp with a 34% expected K rate despite managing just two actual strikeouts in a tough matchup vs. KC.
Schmidt leaned into a cutter-sweeper-knuckle curve mix and ditched his sinker (just 10% usage, down from 21% last year), which should help elevate his K% going forward. His zone rate was strong (61%), and while the chase rate was low (11%), he should be able to generate more swings outside of the zone against the Guardians tonight.
Expect a bump to about 85 pitches, which makes this a solid buy-low spot.
