Recently, I introduced the world to the S&K 500, which will see me break down the starting pitchers for any given night and is 12-2 since being introduced.
Tonight, I have a bet for the Orioles vs. Nationals contest.
MacKenzie Gore has been downright nasty to start the season. He's rocking a 38% K rate and has punched out 13 hitters in two of his first five starts. Fading that kind of run feels reckless on paper — and yet here we are. He enters tonight as the newest inductee into Club 17 with a +19.6 Priority Score. And yeah, he might walk in, get wasted, flip a table and do to the place what Zack Wheeler did last week (Wheeler has since been 86’d). But as Club GM, I’m letting Gore in … cautiously.
My expected K% model is buying into Gore’s breakout, pegging him at 28% going forward, a career high and firmly elite. In fact, I’m higher on Gore than any other RoS model I’ve seen. But this is a K-prop market, not a dynasty league, and this number is a touch too rich right now. Especially after his most recent gem — 13 strikeouts at Coors, the market is juiced.
His five-pitch mix is generating more whiffs than ever, but even with that, his putaway rate is outperforming what the whiff data would suggest. That’s usually unsustainable over the long haul. Most mortals can’t hold a 38% K rate for a full season — not even Gore, unless he’s secretly Gerrit Cole in 2019.
