It's a new week in the baseball season and we have multiple starts from most starters, so it's a good time for strikeout props.
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I usually wait until a pitcher has at least one start under his belt before diving into the strikeout market, but I made an exception with Clay Holmes. After a dominant spring and the addition of a filthy new "kick" changeup, I took a shot on Over 4.5 Ks in his debut as he transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation.
He came up just short with four strikeouts in that outing. In his second start, he bounced back with six — cashing the over against this same Marlins team. But that number was a bit misleading.
Holmes generated just six whiffs and my expected K model had him closer to 3.0 expected Ks. That suggests he was simply getting excellent timing on called strikes and whiffs on two-strike counts — something that tends to regress to a pitcher’s mean over time. He also faces the same team in back-to-back starts, which generally tilts the edge toward the hitters. They’ve already seen him once and should be more dialed in this time.
From a whiff perspective, Holmes hasn’t quite yet found his groove. He didn’t even use the new changeup until the second time through the order in his debut, and through two starts, his overall whiff rates remain underwhelming.
I still believe in Holmes long-term (I actually have his K% projection higher than most models), but for today, I’m seeing value on the under.
Matchup + Model Notes:
The Marlins are pretty average across most plate discipline metrics and based on Holmes’ pitch mix, I project a 1.6% drop in expected K% in this matchup.
Miami has a lower whiff rate vs. changeups and cutters, which make up ~25% of Holmes' arsenal. Holmes has historically posted a 10% higher K% vs. RHB, but the Marlins are sending six lefties to the plate today.
While his K rate vs. LHB is up this year, it’s a small sample and not something I’m fully adjusting for yet. Holmes has a lot of moving parts right now, and this line is being propped up by last game’s box score. I’m projecting this closer to -150 for Under 5.5 Ks. I’ll be ready to jump back on his overs soon, just not in this spot.
