Recently, I introduced the world to the S&K 500, which will see me break down the starting pitchers for any given night and is 11-1 since being introduced.
Tonight, I have two bets, one in Rays vs. Diamondbacks and another in Brewers vs. Giants.
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Eduardo Rodriguez joins the hallowed halls of Club 17 today as he's rocking a Priority Score of +17.8 in the S&K500. For those new here: Priority Score is my way of combining two key parts of my process — a pitcher's stock rating (based on expected K% model and various other factors I laid out in my primer) and the projected edge in my K-prop sims.
When those two align, the play tends to pop. Club 17 members are now 11-1. No, I don’t think this is going to stay at a 91% win rate forever, but it’s proving to be a strong signal for how I’ve long attacked K props.
Rodriguez's raw 30.2% strikeout rate looks incredible, but my expected-strikeout model has him closer to 21%, which lines up more with what we’ve seen from him in recent seasons. His pitch mix hasn’t changed much, but his sinker has weirdly become his second-most productive strikeout pitch (6 strikeouts on just 11% usage), thanks to an unsustainable 43% putaway rate. Sinkers aren’t typically put away pitches, this is noise.
He’s also seeing a spike in called strikes, a stat that tends to normalize over time and one Rodriguez has historically been just average at. That’s where the Rays come in. They swing at pitches in the zone at the sixth-highest rate in baseball, which should limit those freebies.
Oh, Rodriguez is also rocking a career-high 34% chase rate. That’s also coming down and Tampa’s league-average chase profile should help make that regression happen.
