I entered Friday with a 4-1 mark on strikeout props this week. Jeffrey Springs unfortunately didn't give us much of a chance to go 5-0, but it has still been a strong start to the season.
I'll be adding props to this file as I make the picks throughout the day, and be sure to follow me in the Action App for notifications on those picks.
For now, we're onto Friday.
There was a lot to like in Max Meyer’s first start as he struck out seven over 5 2/3 innings, and my model had him at 6.4 expected strikeouts — so, the strong performance was no fluke.
His slider was diabolical, generating a 50% whiff rate, and he leaned on it heavily as his most-used pitch (~40%). He also threw his sinker more than usual, and both his four-seam and sinker velocity were up nearly 2 mph. So, I’d expect those pitches to generate more whiffs than they did in the opener as he settles in.
Now, sinkers usually hurt K%, but it’s not as simple here. Meyer was likely using it to get ahead in counts or induce early contact. That mattered against the Pirates, who have the lowest swing rate in MLB, which Meyer capitalized on with an unusually high called-strike rate.
Normally, I’d call that luck, but the Braves are a perfect follow-up opponent. They're also one of the most passive teams early in counts, especially when it comes to the first pitch. However, they also chase more than the Pirates once they're behind in the count.
That'll create an ideal environment for Meyer as he can get ahead, then turn to his slider and other secondaries to finish off hitters.
He also showed an ability to live on the edges in that first outing, a huge step forward and something I’ll be watching closely. That kind of command boost, paired with the improved velocity and sequencing, could unlock a higher ceiling moving forward.
Lastly, Meyer actually posts a higher K% vs. LHB, making him a bit of a reverse-split arm. The Braves are sending out five lefties today, which subtly raises Meyer's strikeout ceiling compared to the typical righty.
All signs point to Meyer being the real deal. I think this should be priced around -150.
Max Fried is technically a buy-low candidate in my model since he had just four strikeouts in his Yankees debut, but I had him projected for closer to 6.1 in that start.
That said, it was a softer matchup against the Brewers, and Fried benefited from a few extra called strikes. That’s not something he can reliably bank on over the long haul since it’s a stat that tends to be pretty luck-driven game to game. Fried isn’t one of the few arms that can consistently manipulate it.
Milwaukee also threw a higher percentage of left-handed bats at him than he typically sees, which helped boost his strikeout upside a bit.
One thing that stood out was Fried’s increased sinker usage, which was 24% in that start compared to just 16% last season. That’s the kind of pitch mix change that can quietly drag down his K%, especially if he continues trending in that direction.
Fried generally needs opposing hitters to chase in order to pile up strikeouts. But the Pirates have chased at a league-low 25% rate to start the year, which likely explains why I’m showing value on his under here.
Pittsburgh is also sending eight right-handed bats to the plate today, which further lowers his expected K% due to the platoon disadvantage.
