It's a new week in baseball. We have multiple starts for most starters to go off, so it's a good time for strikeout props.
I'll get straight into it on Monday, which started in the afternoon with a win on Casey Mize's over. Follow me in the Action App and subscribe to Action Pro for immediate notifications when I log props.
Dustin May looked sharp in his return from missing the entire 2024 season, striking out six batters over five innings in his debut. He threw 81 pitches and looked confident with an aggressive pitch mix that was noticeably different from the past.
Back in 2023, May's sinker was his most-used pitch at 33%. But in his first start of 2025, he leaned heavily on his sweeper, throwing it 36% of the time, which is the most of his pitch arsenal. That shift could be key today.
May only got a 19% chase rate in that outing against the Braves, but he should see a major bump here. The Nationals chase at the second-highest rate in MLB and also have the second-highest whiff rate vs. sweepers, which is the exact pitch May leaned on most in his debut.
Washington is also rolling out a lefty-heavy lineup with six such bats today. That might seem like a concern, but it’s actually a boost: May owns a +4.5% higher strikeout rate against left-handed hitters in his career, thanks to his reverse platoon split.
May is likely to be in the 80-pitch range again, and I have him projected closer to -190 to record five or more strikeouts. This is a great matchup to back May while the market is still adjusting to his new pitch mix and return to form.
Justin Steele has already made three starts this season thanks to his early appearance in the Tokyo series. He’s racked up 13 strikeouts so far, but my expected Ks model has him closer to 10.1, a -2.9 K difference that signals he’s over-performing a bit on paper. His whiff rate is way down (17.4%), which makes it hard to see him consistently clearing this 5.5 line unless something changes soon.
Steele pounds the strike zone, and that could work against him here. The Rangers swing at the third-highest rate in the majors, so they’re likely to attack early in counts and avoid falling behind where Steele typically does his damage.
A few more red flags:
- He throws his four-seam fastball 50–60% of the time.
- The Rangers rank seventh in whiff rate vs. four-seamers, which limits Steele's upside.
- They’re sending seven right-handed bats to the plate, and Steele’s strikeout rate vs. right-handed hitters is 6% lower than vs. lefties.
The weather is expected to be freezing, which can help pitchers but also might affect Steele’s grip and command. Either way, it’s not enough to offset all the matchup factors working against him.
I have this projected closer to -150 for the under and think it’s a sharp spot to sell high on Steele’s early-season K totals.
Hayden Wesneski looked strong in his season debut, striking out six over five innings against the Giants. My expected Ks model had him right around that number, suggesting the result was pretty in line with his performance.
What stood out most was the shift in pitch mix. Wesneski leaned heavily on his four-seam fastball (55%), a noticeable change from previous years. His cutter, sweeper and changeup now work more as timing disruptors and setup pitches, with the fastball used as his primary put-away weapon. It’s working. Three of his six strikeouts came via the four-seamer, showing he’s not afraid to throw off-speed stuff early and then finish hitters with heat.
This is a sneaky-good matchup for that approach:
- The Mariners swing the bat at a high rate but also have the highest whiff rate in the league
- They rank second-worst in whiff rate vs. four-seam fastballs, which is Wesneski’s most-used pitch
- They also struggle against cutters and sweepers, giving Wesneski extra ways to set them up
Add in the fact that T-Mobile Park has the highest K-boosting park factor over the past few years, and this is an ideal spot for Wesneski to rack up punchouts.
I project this closer to -145, so getting it near even money offers strong value.
