For MLB player props on Tuesday, April 16, I'm targeting two starting pitchers whose strikeout numbers show value.
Entering Tuesday's MLB slate, I'm 18-8 (+8.63u) on strikeout prop picks for the season.
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MLB Strikeout Props Today
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 8:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Giants vs. Marlins
Ryan Weathers
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Ryan Weathers is not a big strikeout guy, as his 18.5% K-rate through three starts is a career-high.
His underlying metricts support the rise in K-rate, however, as I actually have his expected K% just over 20%.
Weathers' fastball velocity is up a full mph to 96 and his sweeper has been filthy, generating a very nice 69% whiff rate.
His changeup whiff rate is over 30% as well — which is likely feeding off his increase in velocity with the fastball.
Weathers is a pitcher I'm interested in investing in right now and the Giants should be a plus-matchup for him today. They swing at pitches in the zone at the second-lowest rate in the majors, which should allow Weathers to get ahead in the count more.
And if he does get ahead in the count, he has two solid put-away pitches in his sweeper and changeup.
I'm projecting Weathers to go over 4.5 strikeouts around 61% of the time.
Pick: Ryan Weathers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Braves vs. Astros
Reynaldo Lopez
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)
Reynaldo Lopez is converting back to a starter this year after working primarily in relief for the last three seasons.
Given that alone, you would expect his K-rate to take a hit, and indeed it has, down from 30% to 24.4%. However, based on his underlying metrics, I have his expected K-rate closer to 20%.
Lopez's swinging-strike rate is a career-low 8% and his fastball velocity is down 3 mph from a season ago.
He hasn't changed his pitch mix that much. He's still throwing his fastball around 65% of the time, and the Astros will be a tough matchup for him, as they rank first in runs above average against fastballs and also have the fourth-lowest whiff rate.
I'm projecting Lopez with about a 59% chance to stay under 4.5 strikeouts, so getting plus odds here is a nice bonus.
