For all of Sean Koerner's betting picks, follow him in the award-winning Action App.
MLB Strikeout Props Tonight | Daily Leader Odds, Projections
Top Value
This is a top-heavy slate with Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler being the clear favorites.
There are a lot of low-strikeout guys and/or pitchers on lower pitch counts going today.
My projections actually show Wheeler as the favorite and fair odds should be closer to +500.
Wheeler gets most of his strikeouts on his four-seamer and the Red Sox have the highest K-rate against fastballs in the league.
He's also a good bet to throw 100 or more pitches, which gives him slightly more upside than a pitcher like Skenes.
Blanco is the other top value and I'm also on his strikeout prop over, which you can read about below. I have his projected odds in this market closer to +1200.
Picks:
- Zack Wheeler (Phillies at Red Sox) +600
- Ronel Blanco (Astros at Giants) +2200
MLB Player Prop: Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes
Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
This one definitely isn't for the faint of heart as Skenes has already become arguably one of the best pitchers and strikeout artists in all of baseball.
He's been as good as his 35.5% strikeout rate so far. I have his expected K-rate closer to 32% and that's what I'm using for his projected K-rate currently, where as a lot of other models have this still in the mid-20s.
All that said, 7.5 might be a tad too high against the Cardinals' expected lineup. While they have a couple of auto-Ks in Nolan Gorman and Matt Carpenter, there are a handful of toucher strikeouts in the lineup.
It's the 7-9 hitters who will be Skenes' best chances of racking up strikeouts, but I have him getting pulled right before facing those hitters for a third time.
I'm projecting Skenes closer to -170 to stay under 7.5 strikeouts tonight.
MLB Player Prop: Ronel Blanco
Ronel Blanco
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Similar to Wheeler, we can bank on Blanco to throw 95 or more pitches, which gives him a high floor/ceiling combo tonight against the Giants.
We don't have the official Giants' lineup as of this writing, but the expected lineup is likely going to be top-heavy, where the 1-6 hitters are all his best strikeout chances.
The bottom-third of the lineup will be tougher to strike out and he's likely going to get pulled right before he faces those hitters for a third time. Thus, this lineup will likely be easier from a strikeout perspective.
I'm projecting Blanco closer to -230 to finish over 4.5 strikeouts tonight.
