For MLB player props on Tuesday, April 9, I'm targeting Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt as he takes on the Seattle Mariners in the Toronto, as well as
Entering Tuesday's MLB slate, I'm 11-4 (+6.23u) on strikeout prop picks for the season.
MLB Strikeout Props Tonight
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 9:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Chris Bassitt
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Chris Bassitt's strikeout percentage has taken a slight hit down to 19% to begin this season.
It'll be hard for him to maintain a K-rate of even that high with a swinging-strike rate of just 6%, which represents a career-low. Bassitt is also getting called strikes at a career-high 23% rate so far this season.
Both factors make him a prime regression candidate right now and someone I want to invest in toward the under.
Bassitt's lower whiff rate so far looks fairly intentional as he's throwing his sinker 46% of the time, which is up from 39% last season. That's a pitch he uses to pitch to contact and has only generated a 9% whiff rate to date.
I'm projecting Bassitt with around a 59% chance to stay under 5.5 strikeouts, so getting this at +115 is a nice bonus.
This is also one where if you miss out on a good number, it could potentially still offer value after the game starts with live props.
The Mariners' 3-6 hitters could be a problem the first time through (don't be shocked it he has 2 Ks through the first two innings), but he has a pretty sharp drop-off in K% the second and third times through the order — even more so than your average pitcher drop-off.
If you miss out on the +115 here, look to potentially be able to buy in after Cal Raleigh's first at-bat.
Pick: Chris Bassitt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Nationals vs. Giants
Josiah Gray
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Josiah Gray saw his strikeout percentage jump up to more than 25% last year after he modified his delivery to a shortened, side-step one.
His K-rate is down to 21% after his first two starts so far this season, but his underlying metrics support it potentially going back up over 25%, as he has a 14% swinging-strike rate.
Gray's walk rate continues to be the main issue, but his first-pitch strike rate and zone rate are both currently at career-highs, so I think we should see his walk rate go down if he can keep that up.
Gray has always had a low called-strike rate, but I think he could see a boost there today as the Giants swing at pitches in the zone at the second-lowest rate in the league.
They also might send five left-handed batters to the plate, but that's never really been an issue for Gray as he has nearly identical strikeout rates against both left-handed and right-handed batters.
After two brutal outings to start the season — including a .464 BABIP — I think Gray ends up having a sneaky good start here. I'm projecting him at close to a 65% chance to clear 4.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Josiah Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-128)
