One of the keys to successfully betting baseball is correctly identifying underdogs with value.
Every Monday, Tuesday and Friday on the Payoff Pitch podcast, our MLB experts identify underdogs from that day's slate they believe have significant value relative to the market.
For the MLB schedule on Monday, April 17, experts BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo have identified a pair of underdogs they recommend betting.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Pirates vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Rich Hill vs. Kyle Freeland
BJ Cunningham: I understand that Rich Hill is old. I understand that his first two starts have not gone well. With that said, he was OK with the Red Sox last season. He was a 4.08 xERA pitcher, so he underperformed. He's going up against Kyle Freeland here, who has drastically overperformed to start the season and is due some negative regression. He was over a 5.00 xERA pitcher last season.
Even if you could give Freeland the advantage here in the starting pitching matchup, but the Pirates have been hitting the ball really well this season. They're 17th in wOBA and 19th in wRC+ against LHP. I know that doesn't sound great, but for a team that was near the bottom all of last season and was dreadful, that is a significant improvement.
On the other side, the Rockies were one of the best offenses against left-handed pitching last season, and now they're 21st in wOBA. I know it's a small sample size, but we're seeing them start to take a dip.
One important thing to note here is that the Pirates' bullpen has overperformed to start the season with a similar FIP to what Colorado has, but they have significantly better Staff+, significantly better Pitching+, and most importantly, this game is gonna be played at Coors Field. The Pirates have the lowest HR/9 rate of any bullpen in baseball this season.
Even if you give Freeland an edge over Hill, the offensive matchup is pretty even, the Pirates have an advantage in the bullpen, and the Pirates are a significantly better defensive team and baserunning team. So yes, Freeland might be better than Hill, but the Pirates have advantages in every other area.
I only project the Rockies at -109 so anything +123 or better that would be my price target on the Pirates.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline (+123 or Better) |
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Mets vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
David Peterson vs. Dustin May
Anthony Dabbundo: The Mets have the split advantage for both sides here with the left-handed David Peterson going up against the right-handed Dustin May. The Mets were a top five offense last season against right-handed pitching and project similarly this year, while the Dodgers are clearly worse offensively against left-handed pitching.
Peterson has seen an increase in his Stuff+ this year. I know he's not typically a stuff guy, but he has good command which is important against the Dodgers.
These are two lineups that really don't chase. Both are bottom-seven in chase rate. May has much more command problems than Peterson, so I'm much more worried about May going against the Mets lineup than I am about Peterson against the Dodgers lineup.
I know May has the better stuff, but overall, when things go wrong for May he tends to miss the zone and that has me concerned for May in this matchup.
This line has come down this morning but I still like the Mets here at +120 or better.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+120 or Better) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
