Yesterday, I highlighted three games with strong hitting conditions in my weather article. One luckily went over, one unluckily went under and the last one went under by a bundle.
Today, Mother Nature is seeking vengeance … she wants herself some runs! And the baseball kind, not the kind the day after about a baker's dozen Miller Lites.
There are EIGHT games today with a Weather Rating of 70+. That's pretty crazy considering just one of them is a day game. I wouldn't suggest taking the over for every one, but there are a few I like more than others.
Also note that many of these ratings are high thanks to the warm and humid conditions, which could lead to some scattered thunderstorms for a handful of games. Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Kansas City look to be the cities with the highest risk of inclement weather, so be careful when setting your DFS lineups.
White Sox (D. Covey) at Nationals (A. Sanchez)
1:05 p.m. ET
Over/under 10.5
Weather Rating: 70
The only day game of the bunch also features the loftiest total at 10.5. I'm waiting to see if this total does fall back to 10 before making a bet, but I will be taking the over even if I need to grab that high number.
Dylan Covey has been awful this year, having significant issues with both walks and homers. Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez has been allowing heaps of fly balls. He isn't a qualified pitcher due to his number of innings pitched, but he would rank top 10 in FB% if he were. With the wind blowing to dead center at 11 mph, I'm hoping to see the ChiSox take advantage of his propensity for flies.
Braves (K. Gausman) at Pirates (J. Musgrove)
7:05 p.m. ET
Over/under 9.5 (u-115)
Weather Rating: 73
Joe Musgrove was having a dandy of a season to start, but things have since gone south. Same goes for Kevin Gausman, who is coming off just about as bad of a start as a human being could possibly make. One inning, eight earned runs. Not good.
Both fellas have been a bit unlucky, though, and have allowed a very high percentage of their baserunners to score. Their advanced stats suggest both pitchers' ERA's should be significantly lower.
More than 70% of bets are on the over, but more than half the money is on the under. This activity has caused the juice to start swinging in the under's favor, and I personally won't be taking the over on this game unless the total drops to 9.
Giants (T. Beede) at Mets (J. Vargas)
7:10 p.m. ET
Over/under 8.5 (u-120)
Weather Rating: 70
The G-Men (I think that nickname is only applicable to the football team but whatever) are hoping to build on their extra-innings onslaught last night. ICYMI, the game entered extra frames at 3-3, but San Fran piled on six runs in the 10th to win 9-3.
A former first round pick, Tyler Beede, will look to improve his numbers in just his fifth career start. He's been absolutely horrid over two cups of coffee the past two years, walking 19 men in 20.1 innings.
The wily vet Jason Vargas has walked a man every two innings himself, this season, and is allowing some very hard hit balls. His 44.3% hard-hit rate would rank third-highest in baseball if he were qualified for the ERA title. I guess that's what happens when you throw 85 mph.
Citi Field is not known for being a hitters park or having nice weather for offense, but tonight is a rare exception. This will mark just the 15th game with a 70+ Weather Rating since 2014 per FantasyLabs Trends Tool.
The over/under juice is trending down, which means I will be waiting to see if the number falls to 8 before making a bet.
Twins (M. Perez) at Indians (C. Carrasco) (T. Clippard)
7:10 p.m. ET
Over/under 9.5
Weather Rating: 70
(Update: Carlos Carrasco has been placed on the disabled list)
This year has not been a good one for Carlos "Cookie" Carrasco and the Indians. Carrasco has a 4.98 ERA which can largely be attributed to a high HR/FB rate and high BABIP. I'm guessing that will come back to earth as the season progresses, but he'll need to face a buzzsaw of a Twins lineup tonight in poor conditions for someone who is giving up a home run on 20% of his fly balls.
At 5.92 runs per game, Minnesota is the league's best offense. The Twins have also hit 111 homers to top the leaderboard.
At plus money, the Twins are a very popular underdog tonight, but the under is a very popular pick, too. Anyone who bet on the total before the pitching change will need to make up their mind if they want to still take it with Clippard starting instead of Carrasco. The line went from 8.5 (o-120) to 9.5 with the new starter.
Rays (C. Morton) at Tigers (S. Turnbull)
7:10 p.m. ET
Over/under 9 (u-115)
Weather Rating: 71
After an uncharacteristic shellacking last night, the Rays and their strong pitching staff will look to shut down the Tigers. Even after allowing nine runs to Detroit, Tampa's 3.41 runs allowed per game still ranks best in the bigs.
We have a nice 10-mph breeze blowing out to right-center for this game, and although both teams are putting forth one of their best starters, we've seen some sharp activity push the over/under from 8.5 to 9.
The under is the more popular pick given the matchup, but the over is getting 56% of the money compared to 43% of the bets.
Orioles (J. Means) at Rangers (M. Minor)
8:05 p.m. ET
Over/under: 9.5 (u-120)
Weather Rating: 76
Though it sports the second highest Weather Rating of the day, the wind will be blowing in in Arlington — something that has led to unders cashing at a very high rate.
Historically, they've hit at a 59.8% rate at Globe Life Park in more than a 250-game sample size per Bet Labs. That's higher than even Wrigley Field. The over/under has fallen from 10 to 9.5 already, which is actually pretty low for this park. I wouldn't blame anyone for still taking this over given the ineptitude of Baltimore's pitching staff, but I will be laying off completely.
Reds (A. DeSclafani) at Cardinals (D. Hudson)
8:15 p.m. ET
Over/under 9.5 (u-115)
Weather Rating: 78
Yesterday, the Weather Rating in St. Louis was strong, but not this strong. These two teams managed only five runs in the warm and windy conditions and it's possible we see something similar tonight.
Luis Castillo continued his strong season with six innings pitched, eight strikeouts and just one earned run. Castillo is also one of the top ground ball pitchers in baseball, which is perhaps why the Cards couldn't muster any offense despite the strong weather.
Today, it's the Cardinals who will have the ground-baller on their side. Dakota Hudson's 21.1% FB% is the lowest in baseball, which means the Reds could have trouble getting the ball up into mid-80s temps.
The Redlegs will hope that Anthony DeSclafani will improve upon his ugly 2.32 HR/9 rate, but tonight may not be the night for that.
There have been five sharp indicators on the over, which has helped move it from 8.5/9 to 9.5 since opening. I took the over, but Hudson's low fly-ball rate may understandably scare some folks away.
Red Sox (C. Sale) at Royals (B. Keller) (J. Junis)
8:15 p.m. ET
Over/under 8 (o-120)
Weather Rating: 75
Last night was looking like a sure under in Kansas City, but some late-inning magic helped push it over.
It took 6 runs in the final two innings, but BOS-KC over bettors got paid tonight. pic.twitter.com/cDBC1ohQgk
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 5, 2019
Tonight, Chris Sale is hoping to get just his second win of the season against a terrible Royals team. The Weather Rating is high tonight, but this isn't exactly a pitching matchup built for good hitting conditions.
Sale has allowed more fly balls than ground balls this year, but he strikes out so many hitters that most folks don't even have a chance to put the ball in play.
I was originally under the impression Brad Keller, a heavy ground-ball pitcher, was starting for K.C., but instead it will be Jakob Junis. Junis also leans towards ground balls, but for the second consecutive season, has a HR/9 right around 1.6 — definitely on the high side. He'll need to limit a Boston offense that has scored more than 6 runs per game against every team not named the Astros, Yankees or Rays. Glenn Sparkman did a fine job last night, but the Royals' bullpen collapsed in the end.
