Baseball is back! That also means weather is back! Sorry AAF, you don't count.
Weather is a crucial element when it comes to baseball betting and DFS. A baseball is going to act much differently in a ballpark featuring 35-degree temps and winds blowing in than it would in 90 degrees with the wind blowing out.
Using proprietary tools and historical data, we can find out where the best baseball weather is.
Of course, you also need to consider precipitation in this sport more than in any other, especially when playing DFS. Oh, you're heavy on a player in a game that was rained out? Too freaking bad, you get a 0. You don't want that to happen, and there's already a chance of a rainout on Opening Day.
A Trip to the Lab
Weather + Bet Labs = good stuff. It's a simple equation that has yielded profits for centuries.
Taking the over when the wind is blowing out is about 2%-3% more profitable than taking any old over, but taking the over when the wind is blowing out at Citizins Citizens Bank Park has been particularly profitable. In fact, it's the best ballpark we have in our system for windy overs.
Why am I telling you this? Well, today the wind is blowing straight out at 11 mph. The over/under, which opened at 7.5, is up to 8.
Highest Weather Ratings (Excluding Closed Roofs)
- Cubs at Rangers: 49
- White Sox at Royals: 37
Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. It takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure.
Is it surprising that we couldn't crack 50 on March 28? No, not really. These first couple of weeks aren't going to be prime offensive conditions. It reminds me of high school baseball practice in Northern Massachusetts in March. Not fun.
The best weather of the day is in Arlington, Texas. What a surprise. That Cubs-Rangers game also has the highest total of the day of 9.5. About two-thirds of bettors are taking the over with Jon Lester taking on Mike Minor, though the total has remained at its opener.
The second "best" weather is for the game featuring potentially the worst pitching matchup of the day between Carlos Rodon and Brad Keller. Though the Weather Rating is at a "lofty" 37, this game has perhaps the best chance of a rainout. More on that later.
Lowest Weather Ratings
- Orioles at Yankees: 14
- Indians at Twins: 15
Though the temps will get into the 50s in the Bronx — not particularly terrible for the Big Apple in late March — the weather will be brutal for the flight of a baseball. Maybe that will stop the Yankees (-350) from hitting 10 homers and beating the Orioles 25-0.
MLB lucked out in Minnesota, where the temperature will also be right around 50 degrees rather than below freezing. Still certainly not great baseball weather, though. A steady left-to-right breeze should help knock down fly balls and keep this game between Corey Kluber and Jose Berrios a pitcher's duel.
Inclement Weather
- Angels at Athletics
- White Sox at Royals
Though Oakland is generally a ballpark one can ignore when it comes to rain, today is a different story. Perhaps it's still monsoon season out in the Bay Area. Well, maybe not monsoon season, but light showers season, as there will be light rain in the area for a good chunk of the day. Since it won't be heavy and should be intermittent, I'm guessing there's not a huge chance of a rainout, though delays are possible.
Kansas City is another story, though, as there's greater than a 75% chance of rain during game hours. Steadier and heavier rain than in Oakland, too, as well as a chance of thunder. This isn't a situation in which waiting it out would really work as the forecast actually gets worse later in the evening.
For those of you dying to roster Brad Keller and Carlos Rodon in DFS, you may want to reconsider.
