Another week of Major League Baseball, another week of MLB player props from the Action Network.
We're targeting a rookie pitcher from Detroit and the first baseman from Tampa Bay today, with both our picks taking place in the 7:10 p.m. ET slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Alex Faedo over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Tigers @ Red Sox | Red Sox -195 |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Before his three-inning, seven-run performance against the White Sox, Alex Faedo looked like a promising young star in the Detroit rotation. He had gone seven straight starts allowing two or fewer runs.
Regression was always coming, though, with Faedo's xERA now up near 4.90. Tonight, I think we can target him and Detroit as potentially undervalued following a disastrous start.
First, Faedo has the stuff to force strikeouts. His four-seam fastball and changeup both move horizontally much more than average. His control is excellent, as well, as he's walking fewer than 2.75 batters per nine innings.
Alex Faedo, Nasty Slider and Painted Fastball. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/cWmVzXtxoG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 16, 2022
Faedo struck out over 10 batters per nine innings in at every minor-league level on his way up the ladder. While those numbers are lagging in his first MLB season, he may be starting to pick it up, as he's cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in three straight starts.
It'll be tough to get by Boston, which has struck out at a bottom-10 rate against right-handed pitching this season, but our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Faedo for 5.3 Ks today. This plus-money line is too juicy to pass up.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Ji-Man Choi over 0.5 Total Bases (-120)
| Yankees @ Rays | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
It may be Gerrit Cole Day, but there's no reason to set Ji-Man Choi's base total below 1.5.
Choi has picked up at least one base in 30 of his 47 starts this season (64%, -176 implied odds to the over). Moreover, Choi has cashed this number in 19 of 26 home games this season (73%, -271 implied odds to the over).
Choi has been crushing the ball at home. He has a ridiculous 203 wRC+ at the Trop in 2022 and a 1.025 OPS. His home .277 ISO mark also bodes well for betting his bases, and that translates when you realize he's averaging two bases per home start this season.
While it may be Cole day for the Yankees, Choi has never been scared of the Yankee ace. Choi is 11-for-28 with seven extra-base hits in his career against Cole. His 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 13.4-degree average launch angle create an xSLG near .500 and xwOBA near .370.
Choi has picked up a base in three of the last four games against the Yankees. Let's see him do it again on Monday night.
Pick: Over 0.5 total bases (-120)
