Welcome back from the weekend with two more MLB player props from Monday's slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jon Gray Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Orioles vs. Rangers | Rangers -165 |
| First Pitch | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This line is too high.
Jon Gray has been tearing teams apart lately, having gone over this line in five of his last six starts and having eclipsed double-digit strikeouts twice over the last two months.
But I think Gray has become overvalued. Gray's Swinging Strike Rates are solid, and his K/9 is up close to 10, but 6.5 is a very high number. Projections are much lower on him, with our Action Labs Player Props tool projecting him for six and FanGraphs' SaberSim projections marking him for just 5.6.
I'll also back this Baltimore lineup right now. The Orioles are striking out at the third-lowest rate against RHPs over the last month at just 18.7%. The O's have also paired that with a 113 wRC+ against righties.
As a result, the O's have held six of the last eight right-handed pitchers they've faced under their strikeout totals.
I'll take the O's to hold another guy under in Gray on Monday evening.
Pick: Under 6.5 Ks (+115)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
| Dodgers vs. Giants | Dodgers -140 |
| First Pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
This line makes no sense.
Our Action Labs projections mark Webb for 5.8 strikeouts today, and FanGraphs' SaberSim projections mark him for 5.7. There's tons of upside value with Webb.
Webb's strikeout numbers are down across the board, with his K/9 sitting in just the 7.8 range. However, that's being held down by a bunch of tough starts where he recorded just one or two strikeouts.
Outside of that, Webb has hit this number in 14 of 21 starts this season and in eight of 11 home starts. Webb's cruised past 4.5 strikeouts in five straight home starts.
He's facing the Dodgers, and the Dodgers are scary, but Webb has never feared his rival lineup. Webb cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in all five starts against the Dodgers last season, picking up 34 strikeouts in fewer than 30 innings with a CSW rate north of 30%.
I'll take him to go over again here.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
