Hope everyone had a great weekend and a great All-Star Break.
I welcome you back to the work week with two more +EV MLB player props on Monday's card — one over and one under on strikeout totals.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Zach Plesac Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Guardians @ Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
Zach Plesac has never been the biggest swing-and-miss pitcher.
He's hovered around 6.5 K/9 his entire four-year career with a brief uptick in 2020. He's also never really broken out as a top-tier starter and always overperforms his peripherals.
But this Red Sox lineup is a joke right now. There's no Rafael Devers, no Trevor Story and no Kiké Hernandez — plus, J.D. Martinez has sat the last few days. Boston is forced to go to Yolmer Sanchez and Jeter Downs in the bottom third.
As a result, the Red Sox are striking out at the highest rate in MLB over the last two weeks (30.5%) while posting the third-lowest wRC+ (69). Against right-handed pitchers over that span, the numbers only get worse (31.9 K%, 63 wRC+).
But even when the Boston bats were hitting well in 2021, Plesac still managed to force some whiffs. Plesac walked into Fenway last September and struck out five Red Sox over five innings, putting up a 29% CSW rate over 101 pitches.
It's not always worth backing Plesac, but it's worth fading Boston right now. Projections are also uber-high on the Cleveland righty, with FanGraphs SaberSim projecting him for 4.5 Ks and our Action Labs projections marking him for 5.6.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-155)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Adam Oller Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)
| Astros @ Athletics | |
| First Pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetMGM |
The Astros are always going to be disciplined.
They rank third in zone contact rate (83.6%) this season while posting the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.6%). They'll also walk a lot (9.3 BB%, sixth in MLB) and consistently drive in runs (118 wRC+, fourth in MLB).
That's going to make Adam Oller's job tough. Oller doesn't have the best stuff, has walked more batters than he's struck out (5.93 K/9, 6.26 BB/9) and ranks in the first percentile of qualified pitchers in CSW rate (20.8%).
Plus, his Baseball Savant page paints an even less-enticing picture.
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How are you supposed to get past the Astros with that?
Oller managed to pick up three strikeouts over 4 1/3 in his last outing against Houston. But over his 79 pitches, he still could only muster a 24% CSW rate and a swinging-strike rate of around 5%.
It's still TBD if Oller will continue in the A's rotation. Given his 8.56 ERA, 6.43 xERA, 7.92 FIP, 6.62 xFIP and -0.8 fWAR, I'm hesitant about how long they'll let his leash run.
But when his leash did run longer, Oller still couldn't miss enough bats to get over this line. He managed just three strikeouts on 94 pitches against the strikeout-happy Angels (17% CSW) and three Ks on 88 pitches against the Rangers (19% CSW).
With the Action Labs projections on my side, I'll fade Oller again.
Pick: Under 3.5 Ks (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
