Happy Monday, and welcome back to another week of MLB player props from Action Network.
There are two pitchers I like to go over their strikeout totals tonight, and luckily, they're playing in the same game.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Pablo Lopez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-165)
| Marlins @ Cardinals | |
| First Pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Pablo Lopez hasn't been the sharpest pitcher of late. He got shelled against the Mets and gave up four to both the Giants and Rays. His ERA was 1.05 in his first seven starts and is 4.31 over his last seven.
But Lopez's strikeout ability hasn't been the culprit. He had 46 strikeouts over 43 innings during those first dominant seven starts but has still posted 37 strikeouts over the last 39 innings.
In the end, Lopez will strike out about nine batters per nine innings. Therefore, we just need Lopez to get to the fifth inning tonight, and this should cash with ease.
I think we can trust Lopez to do that. He's made two starts against St. Louis since 2021 started, pitching 6 2/3 and 7 innings, respectively. He punched out six in the former start and nine in the latter.
Looking at the more expansive trends, Lopez has cashed this number in a whopping 12-of-14 starts this season. He's hit over 4.5 Ks at a 74% rate since the start of 2020, good for -278 implied odds to the over.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Lopez for six strikeouts tonight, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him around five.
Either way, I absolutely trust Lopez to get over this line and would play it to about -170.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Adam Wainwright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-127)
| Marlins @ Cardinals | |
| First Pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | BetRivers |
Adam Wainwright has shown some uncharacteristic signs of aging this year.
Waino struggled with strikeout numbers in the middle of the season and has posted a 4.68 ERA in June. The Cardinals still manage to win games with Uncle Charlie on the mound, but they're becoming wins in spite of him.
However, his xFIP has held steady under 4.00, and his strikeout numbers have increased in recent starts. He picked up 10 against the Padres, seven against the Reds, five against the Red Sox and seven against the Brewers.
If you put those four starts together, Waino has posted a 10.44 K/9 during this recent stretch. That's a rate similar to Corbin Burnes rather than Adam Wainwright.
Waino will take this hot-and-cold streak to the Marlins, who have been a league-average strikeout team this season (22.4%, 14th in MLB) and a slightly above-average offense (113 wRC+, 8th in MLB).
But Waino already took on the Fish earlier this season, striking out six over just 92 pitches. And in a start last season against Miami, he managed seven punchouts over 105 pitches, amassing a 32% CSW rate.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool has Wainwright projected for 5.4 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him right at 5.
I'll play the over at anything better than about -135.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-127)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
