Waltz into another work week with two more +EV player props. We're backing two pitchers in today's version of this column.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Freddy Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
| Dodgers @ Brewers | |
| First Pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Freddy Peralta has been hurt for the majority of the season. He's finally worked his way back into the rotation but has been extremely limited, with pitch counts of 65 and 67 against the Pirates and Rays. He managed three and four strikeouts in those starts, respectively.
Peralta allowed two runs against the Rays, but they both came from a bloop and a blast in the third inning. Otherwise, there wasn't another baserunner against him. He seems in peak form.
Peralta is generally a strikeout machine. Before his injury, he struck out at least six in six of seven starts, recording over 12 punchouts per nine innings in the process. His CSW rate is one of the best in the majors (31.2%), and he's touched as high as 38% in a single start (Atlanta).
Freddy Peralta, 9th and 10th Ks. 👀 pic.twitter.com/C18dg6vtKl
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 17, 2022
Now that he's on his third start back from injury, the key will be how much of a leash he's allowed. I trust he'll post a CSW rate north of 30%, so he'll just need to see enough opportunities. When he's thrown at least 75 pitches over the last two seasons, he's cashed this number in 25 of his 28 starts (89%, -833 implied odds to the over).
The Dodgers are a very tough lineup. But Peralta needed just 91 pitches over six innings to punch out seven of them last season. Against this current Dodger lineup, Peralta has posted a whopping 38.5% strikeout rate over 52 PAs.
If Peralta gets to 80 pitches, and I think he should after his last start, this should cash easily. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Peralta for 6.8 strikeouts against L.A., while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 5.9.
We get to bet his over at plus-money.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Joe Ryan over 5.5 strikeouts (-115)
| Royals @ Twins | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Joe Ryan is a big reason why the Twins have a shot at the playoffs this season. He's a rookie who's turned into the de-facto ace of the club. His numbers aren't spectacular this season, but his ERA is skewed from a 10-run and six-run starts against the Padres and Dodgers.
Ryan's xERA is still below 3.50, and he's still accumulated over 1.2 fWAR this season. Things are going well for the young righty.
Ryan's strikeout numbers are also starting to bump. He's struck out only around 8.75 batters per nine innings this season, but he's starting to strut the stuff that earned him more than 12 K/9 in Triple-A.
Joe Ryan's 2 1st inning Ks. pic.twitter.com/EWvMSMBTiQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 23, 2022
Ryan's cashed this number in three of his past four starts, accumulating 26 strikeouts over 20 innings, good for 11.7 K/9. His pitch count hasn't been all that high, either.
Historically, the Royals are a disciplined lineup. But over the past month, the Royals have struck out at a top-10 rate in MLB (23.8%). The last time out against Kansas City, Ryan struck out six on fewer than 80 pitches, producing a 35% CSW rate in the process.
Our Action Labs projections mark Ryan for 6.6 Ks in this start, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 5.9. There's good value in this line at -115.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
