The first weekend of the MLB season has come and gone. But baseball content doesn't stop at The Action Network, and we have more MLB player props coming your way this week.
This column went 3-2 for 1.1 units of profit in the first week. With the help of The Action Network's Player Props Tool, we hope to continue that success.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Chris Flexen over 3.5 strikeouts (-145)
| Mariners @ Twins | Twins -131 |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
I'll take a shot with Flexen at this line.
Flexen only went over this line in 17 of his 31 total starts last season, but that included nine of 11 starts down the stretch.
Flexen doesn't strike a lot of guys out, ranking in just the ninth percentile of pitchers in strikeout rate last season. But he does two things well: he doesn't walk guys and he pitches a lot of innings.
Flexen walked fewer than two batters per nine innings last year while averaging 5 2/3 innings per start.
Flexen their muscle. 💪
8 scoreless, 8 Ks for Chris Flexen and a 10-0 W for the @Mariners. https://t.co/wDFogFFxKTpic.twitter.com/sTe5HiLN3v
— MLB (@MLB) June 16, 2021
The Twins basically strike out at a league-average rate. But in two games against Minnesota last season, Flexen punched out 13 Twins. Mostly because he is able to pitch a lot of innings and avoid walks.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Flexen for 4.8 strikeouts on Monday night, giving us nearly a 12% edge against the current line.
That's more than enough to take a shot with Flexen.
Pick: Chris Flexen over 3.5 Ks (-145)
Elieser Hernandez over 3.5 strikeouts (-160)
| Marlins @ Angels | Angels -145 |
| First Pitch | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
You may not know who Elieser Hernandez is, and that's okay. I'm still trying to figure out the young Marlins pitcher myself.
He's a fastball pitcher, throwing his four-seam more than half the time, but that pitch only goes about 90 mph. His slider doesn't have much bite to it, but he gets batters to whiff about a third of the time on the pitch.
Elieser Hernandez, White Castle Special. 🤢🍔🍔🍔 pic.twitter.com/l7F5E6f47W
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 16, 2020
Either way, Hernandez offers value at this line.
Last season, Hernandez went over 3.5 strikeouts in nine of his 11 starts. That 82% hit rate translates to -450 odds.
And I'll take these odds against an Angels team that isn't immune to strikeouts.
Last season, the Angels struck out at a league-average rate (23.2%). But against righties, they struck out at the 11th-highest rate. And against righties and at Angel Stadium, the Angels struck out at the eighth-highest rate in MLB in 2021 (24.3%).
Hernandez has never pitched against the Angels, but that's also okay. The Action Labs Player Props Tool has Hernandez projected for 5.3 Ks on Monday evening, making this a top-rated play.
Pick: Elieser Hernandez over 3.5 Ks (-160)
