Two contests on Monday night fit a betting algorithm developed by the Action Network that reports a return on investment (ROI) of 9%.
The games in question are Nationals vs. Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) and Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
If you had bet $100 on each game that has fit this betting trend since 2005, you'd be up about $14,000. That's roughly $800 per year.
And this is over a massive sample size: 1,400+ games over the last 17 odd seasons. Substantial data sets like this one, of course, ensure statistical significance.
The betting system incorporates public tracking data also proprietary to the Action Network. The philosophy behind the algorithm is simple: Fade the retail bettors on unpopular teams.
This system's 9% return on investment is better than the average annual return of the S&P 500, which has hovered at around 8% for over a century. That index is down about 19% year-to-date. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, for instance, is down about 59% during that same timeframe.
We don't recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing – variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets – but similar principles apply in regards to gains over a long time horizon.
