Nationals vs. Dodgers Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +194 | 9.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 +100 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -235 | 9.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -120 |
This three-game series in Los Angeles pits the National League’s best record against the National League’s worst record. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers have picked up wins in the first two games of the series and will look to close things out with a sweep on Wednesday.
We know the Dodgers are likely going to get another win to finish the series, but I'm not in the business of laying -250 on a baseball game. However, there is always money to be made in any matchup, we just have to find the best angle. So, let's look for the Nationals vs. Dodgers best bet on Wednesday.
Washington Nationals
Happy Patrick Corbin Day! The truth is, the holiday hasn't been as giving for gamblers as it was last season. Last season, betting against the Nationals in every Corbin start yielded a 24-6 record. This year, however, you are down money (5-6) and have lost three straight bets if you bet against Corbin every time. Even just betting against the Nationals in the first five innings would only yield a 6-4-1 record.
Let’s not pretend Corbin is suddenly a good pitcher again. He is sporting a 4.88 ERA and an even worse 5.76 xERA. His strikeout upside is nonexistent, and he gets hit around a Hard-Hit rate of 15%. Corbin has long relied on his sinker/slider combination, but opponents are hitting .352 with a 49.3% Hard-Hit rate against his sinker.
The one positive to Corbin is he's been able to eat up innings and delay the shaky Nationals bullpen. He has gone at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts. After a few decent outings, Corbin returned to form in his last start, allowing six runs against the lowly Royals offense.
Washington is in rebuild mode and has just one regular starter with a wRC+ over 112. Their lineup ranks in the bottom 10 in wRC+ and wOBA.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Corbin will face another former All-Star on a steep decline, Noah Syndergaard. The 30-year-old is on his fourth team in three years and has a troubling 6.27 ERA through 10 starts with the Dodgers. Syndergaard has allowed at least three runs in six of his outings.
Usually, when a guy has an xERA more than a full run lower than his ERA, it indicates a pitcher likely due for positive regression and somebody to consider targeting. But we are not going to sit here and celebrate Syndergaard’s 5.23 xERA as an indication he is back to the old Thor.
The former flame thrower now throws his sinker — which used to often reach triple digits — at 92 mph. He is no longer able to strike out batters, and opponents are hitting nearly .300 against him.
Los Angeles doesn't have the same problem as Washington. Six of the Dodgers regulars have a wRC+ over 115. Freddie Freeman and Will Smith both rank in the top 10 in wRC+ and wOBA and lead a Dodgers team that has one of the best offenses in baseball.
Nationals vs. Dodgers Betting Pick
This would be a tremendous pitching matchup if the year was 2018. Unfortunately, these pitchers are on the wrong side of their prime and both have an xERA over 5.00.
Among all pitchers with at least 45 innings pitched, Corbin and Syndergaard have the 11th and 17th worst xERAs. We are going to see a ton of balls put in play as two pitchers in the bottom 12% of the league in strikeout rate face off.
When contact is made, expect it to be solid as both surrender hard contact and rank in the bottom 20% in xwOBA.
As much as the Nationals offense doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, they’ve been hitting the ball well recently. Both Washington and Los Angeles rank in the top 10 of the league in wRC+ and wOBA over the past two weeks.
I’ll back both of those offenses against these declining starting pitchers with a first five innings over.
Pick: 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 |
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