Nationals vs. Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | +152 |
| Mets Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
It feels like everybody just keeps waiting for the regression LIRR to come for the New York Mets.
But as we close out May, it has yet to arrive.
The Mets finished April at 15-7 — the best record in the NL — and are 9-3 in their last 12 games.
Washington, on the other hand, is in a full rebuild. The Nats currently have the second-worst record in the National League and the third-worst overall mark in the league.
Corbin Has Been Brutal For Nats
Washington veteran Patrick Corbin (LHP) will get the ball Tuesday and to put this mildly, he might be the worst pitcher in baseball. In 10 starts, he's 1-7 with a 6.30 ERA, the highest mark among all qualified pitchers.
He does have a slightly better 6.06 xERA, at least.
Corbin has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts. He's surrendered a .396 xwOBA and ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xwOBA, xBA and xERA. He throws his sinker, slider and fastball over 24% of the time and all three have a Run Value of at least five.
For as bad as the Nationals have been, their offense hasn’t been a disaster, as it sits in the middle of the pack. They're 14th in runs scored this year and are 16th in wOBA. Sure, they don’t hit a lot of home runs, but they also have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league.
For a rebuilding team, it has been 32-year-old Cesar Hernandez and 41-year-old Nelson Cruz leading the way. They're both hitting over .400 over the last week.
Oh, and of course, there's still Juan Soto. While he's been in a bit of a slump, his .418 xwOBA is eighth in the league and he appears to be heating up as the summer kicks off.
Surprise! Offense Over Pitching For Mets
With injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill, Trevor Williams (RHP) is probably making more starts than the Mets would like. He's made three starts and eight appearances, going 0-3 with a 4.37 ERA. In his starts this year, Williams has been even worse, with a 7.20 ERA.
The confusing thing about Williams is that his advanced numbers are pretty decent. He has a 2.65 xERA and 3.34 xFIP. He doesn’t walk batters, and his .274 xwOBA ranks in the top 15% of the league.
While their pitchers were expected to steal the headlines, it's been the Mets' offense running the show in the Big Apple. New York ranks second in the league in runs scored and is top-five in wOBA and wRC+.
The big bats for the Mets are absolutely on fire right now. Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Starling Marte are all hitting over .325 with an OPS over .980. Alonso ranks fourth in the league with 13 home runs.
Nationals-Mets Pick
Over the last month, New York and Washington both rank top-10 in the league in both wRC+ and wOBA. They're each averaging more than 4.5 runs per game during May and more than 5.4 runs over the last week.
Corbin has arguably been the worst starting pitcher in the league this season, and Williams has really struggled as a starter. While Williams has been unlucky this year, he still has a 4.41 career ERA, and is nothing more than a back-end, fill-in guy.
New York is 15-9-1 to the over at home, while Washington is 15-6-2 to the over on the road. Back both offenses to continue crushing the ball on a scorching Tuesday night.
Pick: Over 9 (-115) (Play to -120)
