Nationals vs Padres Prediction Thursday | MLB Odds, Picks Today (July 25)
(Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) Pictured: Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar
Nationals vs. Padres Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+150 | 8.5 -110/-110 | +1.5 +108 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-180 | 8.5 -110/-110 | -1.5 -111 |
Dylan Cease should be primed for a good second half. The San Diego Padres are still in the race for a wild-card spot in the National League and he'll be a massive part of that run. He still has a plus arsenal and gets hitters out via the punch-out at an elite rate.
His opponent will be the Washington Nationals and Patrick Corbin, who has been DFA-worthy for a while now. The veteran southpaw has allowed a tremendous amount of hard contact and has barely been able to strike anyone out. Yes, he can keep the ball on the ground, but that's his only redeeming quality.
Since the Padres have hit lefties well, they should push across plenty of runs in this contest. As a result, betting the Padres team total holds more value than the moneyline.
San Diego Padres
Cease has a 3.76 ERA against a 3.27 xERA. Positive regression could start coming his way in this matchup. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate aren't the best, but he strikes out 32.5% of the batters he faces and has a 7.6% walk rate. He hasn't kept the ball on the ground much, but the Nats have a relatively high ground-ball rate against righties lately.
Now, the Padres crush lefties, like Corbin. They have a 153 wRC+ off of lefties since June 25 with a 9.7% walk rate and an astounding 13.1% walk rate. They also have eight batters with an xwOBA over .320. Sure, some hitters on San Diego's active roster don't have many plate appearances against lefties in the past month, but this is still a potent lineup.
The Padres’ relief staff has been fine lately. They have five arms with an xFIP under 4.00 and boast a 3.87 xFIP as a unit. They also walk less than 7% of batters.
Washington Nationals
Corbin has a 5.35 ERA against a 6.03 xERA. His average exit velocity is over 91 mph and his hard-hit rate is in the third percentile. He also allows a large number of barrels and his strikeout rate is a putrid 16.4%. He does rank in the 69th percentile in ground-ball rate.
The Nationals have been fine against righties in the past month, but Cease is a top-notch strikeout arm. Washington owns a 103 wRC+ with a 7% walk rate and a 21.6% strikeout rate. The top of this batting order has carried the brunt of the work as Washington has five batters with an xwOBA over .330 against righties in the past month.
In relief, the Nats have been slightly better with a 3.75 xFIP, a 24.4% strikeout rate and a 8% walk rate since June 25.
Nationals vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
The play in this game is to fade Corbin and back one of the best teams against lefties. The Padres have a deep lineup that can do damage throughout and Corbin would have already been designated for assignment if he played for a contender. The moneyline is too steep in this game, so take San Diego’s team total from 5 to 5.5.
Pick: San Diego Padres Over 5 | Play to 5.5
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