Nationals vs. Yankees Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 9 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -162 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-158 | 9 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +134 |
Patrick Corbin will lead the Washington Nationals against the ailing New York Yankees on Thursday.
The Yankees may be going with a bullpen day, and although the bullpen has looked a tad shaky of late, the best bet for Nationals vs. Yankees is on New York's team total.
Washington Nationals
Corbin is overachieving, especially in the second half of this season. He owns a 4.71 ERA, which isn't very strong, but his xERA is 6.23. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 10th percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 13th percentile. His xBA and xSLG rank in the first and second percentiles, respectively. His strikeout rate is an abysmal 15.4%, and although his walk rate (7%) is fine, the Yankees should jump all over him early.
The Nationals have a 97 wRC+ with an 8.1% walk rate, a 20.4% strikeout rate and a .731 OPS in August off of right-handed pitching. Even though these numbers are about average, the Yankees carry a tremendous offensive edge. Yes, Washington has six bats with an xwOBA over .330 off of righties this month, but the rest of the team has been terrible.
The Nationals bullpen has a 3.97 xFIP with a 24.5% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate in August. If the Yankees get to Corbin early, the Nationals will be forced to throw weaker relievers in the middle innings.
New York Yankees
New York should crush Corbin. This month, the Bronx Bombers hold a 187 wRC+ with a sub-19% strikeout rate and a 1.030 OPS off of southpaws. They have four active bats with an xwOBA over .400 and two more above .330.
Aaron Judge with his 25th HR of the season 💣 pic.twitter.com/u19dvEJqPr
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) August 23, 2023
The Yankees have had some trouble closing games in the past week. New York's bullpen has a 4.17 xFIP as a whole, but there are six relievers below the 4.00 mark. New York's bullpen isn't great, but it may be a tad underrated going into this game.
Nationals vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Yankees are the better team and facing a struggling lefty, but given the volatility of New York's pitching staff, backing the team total makes more sense than the moneyline in this matchup. The Yankees should hit Corbin hard, so play their team total to 5.5.
