For MLB player props on Monday, April 8, I'm targeting Yankees right-hander Nestor Cortes as he takes on the Miami Marlins in the Bronx, as well as Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo as he gets set to face the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Entering Monday's MLB slate, I'm 11-2 (+8.49u) on strikeout prop picks for the season.
MLB Strikeout Props Today
Nestor Cortes
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-116)
Utilize our FanDuel promo code to get the most out of your MLB player prop action!
Nestor Cortes is off to a slow start, generating just an 8% swinging strike rate. His sweeper has been the biggest issue so far, as he’s yet to generate a single whiff with it this year.
The Marlins will be sending up just one left-handed batter today, Luis Arraez, who is one of the toughest hitters to K in baseball. Cortes strikes out right-handed hitters at a 4% lower rate, so this is a tougher lineup for him to rack up Ks.
The Marlins are also giving Jazz Chisholm Jr. the day off, which lowered my K projection for Cortes even more.
Home plate ump Todd Tichenor tends to have a smaller strike zone, which will have even more of a negative impact on Cortes, who tends to pitch around the edges.
Cortes also throws a first-pitch strike at one of the highest rates in the league and the Marlins swing at the first pitch at the fifth-highest rate. So as you can see, there are a handful of factors going against Cortes’ potential K rate today.
I'm projecting Cortes close to a 63% chance to stay under 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
Luis Castillo
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Utilize our DraftKings promo code to get the most out of your MLB player prop action!
Luis Castillo typically gets off to a slow start in March/April and that is the case again this season, with just a 24% K-rate after two starts.
However, he’s been a bit lucky to have a K% that high with just a 8% swinging strike rate (which is 4%+ lower than his career low in 2022).
His sinker has been the main issue as it’s failed to generate a single whiff this year and is a pitch he throws 16% of the time.
The Blue Jays will be sending seven right-handed hitters to the plate against Castillo and he tends to throw his sinker at a higher rate to RHB, so having such a high number of RHB could actually ding his K rate here.
Castillo's K-rate also takes a 4.5% hit on the road historically throughout his career, and the Blue Jays are a tougher lineup to strikeout, chasing at the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
I'm projecting Castillo with around a 63% chance to stay under 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
