Mets vs. Braves Odds
| Mets Odds | +140 |
| Braves Odds | -165 |
| Over/Under | 9 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet. | |
Tylor Megill of the New York Mets and Charlie Morton of the Atlanta Braves match up against these respective opponents for the second time within a week.
Typically, this is a pretty difficult angle to bet, but given the success each of these right-handers has had when playing these lineups, how will runs be produced? Does a savvy veteran like Morton have that much of an edge over Megill and the Mets’ bullpen?
Mets May Need to Turn to Pen Early
The Mets have a top-10 bullpen, anchored by Edwin Díaz and Aaron Loup. In his only start this season last week, Megill went 4 1/3 inning. Now, if he struggles at all, it is more than likely because he just faced the Braves. However, the Mets have a rested bullpen ready to handle the Braves lineup. Unless, Megill can only handle a few innings of work, the Mets have enough reliable relief arms.
Missing Jonathan Villar and Brandon Nimmo are enormous losses for the Mets in a game like this. Both are top-five hitters on the Mets by wRC+ while facing righties, but fortunately for New York, they have six other above-average hitters against righties.
Since June 1, Francisco Lindor has been the best hitter on the team, so this is an added jolt New York needed. Dominic Smith also seems to have his abilities back, after a prolonged slump to start the season. With Michael Conforto struggling out of the gates, there is a potential for Billy McKinney to get some plate appearances in this matchup, as well.
That said, Morton has owned the Mets’ lineup this season. In 13 innings of work, he has allowed three total hits and two walks. This is about as stellar as it gets, and with a couple injuries hindering the Mets, this should be enough to hold them in check.
Braves Pen is Well Rested
When it comes to the Braves, virtually everyone is healthy at the moment. They have seven solid bats against righties this year, and having seen a young arm like Megill last week, I believe they will be able to get to him this time.
Megill did allow five baserunners in his appearance, and all seven players in the lineup walk above a 10% clip off of righties. This is concerning, given the fact that Megill walked two in 4 1/3 innings of work last time out last week.
Even if he does not have much experience in MLB, Megill had 45-rated control in the minor leagues as a prospect. This is an issue, and frankly, this is where I see the Braves taking advantage: with patience.
The Atlanta Braves' bullpen also received a day of rest on Monday. Will Smith, A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek are the three most valuable arms in relief for the Braves, and having them fully rested should put them in great shape to follow up Morton, after he gives them at least five strong innings. Usually, this is where to fade the Braves, but after rest, they will be in good shape after one of their strongest inning-eaters hits the hill to start this game.
Mets-Braves Pick
There is really no play on the Mets side of the ball. Missing Nimmo and Villar stings, and I do not have the faith in Megill to have two consecutive strong starts against a lineup that can walk.
More likely than not, his start will be short and the Mets will have to dig into their bullpen early. However, taking the Braves at -160 is far too high. Take the Braves run total over 4.5 (-121) and play to 5 (-120). They have enough bats to possibly hit this number early.
Pick: Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-121)
