Mets vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds Tonight — 9/25

Despite dropping a crucial game to the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday, the New York Mets remain a half-game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL wild-card standings entering Wednesday, with Arizona falling to the San Francisco Giants. The Mets currently hold the second wild-card spot while the Braves are just a half-game back of the D-backs for the third and final slot.

That means this game — and the series as a whole — could determine whether either of these teams makes the MLB playoffs.

In a big game like this, the Mets would have to be shaking in their boots with David Peterson taking the ball against the indomitable Chris Sale, but there may be reason to believe that the road team could secure a critical victory on Wednesday.

Find out why I think New York could take this middle game against the NL Cy Young Award frontrunner in my Mets vs Braves prediction for Wednesday, September 25.

Mets vs Braves Predictions

• Mets vs Braves picks: Mets ML (+150 | Play to +140)

My Mets vs Braves best bet is on Mets Moneyline, where I see value at +150. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Wednesday, September 25

7:20 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Mets Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+150	7.5 -105o / -115u	+1.5 -145

Braves Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-185	7.5 -105o / -115u	-1.5 +120

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Mets-Braves Moneyline: Mets +150 | Braves -185
• Mets-Braves Total: 7.5 total runs (-105o / -115u)
• Mets-Braves Spread: Mets +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)

Kenny Ducey’s Mets vs Braves Preview

Mets Betting Preview: Don't Be Fooled by David Peterson's ERA

Though he enters with an excellent 3.08 ERA, it's hard to say Peterson won't struggle in this one.

He's allowed four earned runs in each of his past three starts against the Braves, with six walks and four home runs painting an even more daunting picture. That's the story of Peterson's season and his career, however.

He's consistently found crucial outs with runners on base, but with control issues, few strikeouts, and an unsightly .271 xBA allowed, the chances of the left-hander working a clean and comfortable turn through the rotation are usually slim to none.

Peterson's twice allowed four earned runs in his four September starts, but in a bit of good news, he's lowered his xBA to .260 in these outings against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Phillis with a .377 xSLG and a much-improved 4.3% walk rate. On top of that, he's struck out 24.5% of the batters he's faced — while 11 punchouts against the strikeout-happy Red Sox weigh that number rather significantly, he also struck out seven Braves in his only start against Atlanta this season.

There's a glimmer of hope for Peterson late in his miserable season, and to help him out, this Mets offense continues to produce a sixth-ranked 124 wRC+ in the last two weeks. New York's boasted incredibly numbers across the board with a 9.8% walk rate, 19.5% strikeout rate and .206 Isolated Power to sit among the top five lineups in all three categories.

Getting to Sale certainly won't be easy, especially considering they managed just three baserunners and struck out nine times in 7 1/3 innings against the soon-to-be National League Cy Young Award winner in their only meeting. Still, they did score two runs thanks to a two-run homer off the bat of Francisco Lindor.

Braves Betting Preview: Can Atlanta Chop Down Peterson?

Sale continues to hum along, hitting his spots with seemingly every delivery and producing a 1.13 ERA in September to improve that mark for a third consecutive month. He's allowed just 18 hits in 24 innings with one home run against him in his past 10 outings, though that did come in his last start at the Cincinnati Reds.

If there's one bone to pick, it would be with Sale's four walks across his last two starts, considering the Mets have done an excellent job drawing free passes lately. He's also pitched to a .390 xSLG allowed this month, which is well above his .325 mark for the season — a number that sits in the top nine percent of all pitchers — and it's 68 points higher than the actual slugging percentage against him in those outings.

Atlanta, much like New York, has been red-hot with a 134 wRC+ in the last two weeks, sporting an even-better .225 Isolated Power with one of the five lower strikeout rates in baseball and a palatable 8.3% walk rate. A story to watch here as it steps to Peterson will be the fact that it sits 16th in OPS to ground-ball pitchers this year while ranking sixth against fly-ballers.

The Braves have also crushed lefties this year, sitting sixth in wRC+, though they've been a bit cooler in September with a 12th-ranked xwOBA.

Mets vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I want to bet on David Peterson.

I like what I've seen from him this month, as he's limited the walks, and his sporadic strikeout ability has been a bit more sustained. He should have an edge against the Braves, considering their struggles with ground-ball pitchers. If he can continue to find the strike zone, he should remove one of Atlanta's strengths — drawing walks.

Pitching to a better xSLG allowed, too, and perhaps getting a bit more aid with Atlanta's recent struggles against southpaws, Peterson should have a fair chance of making it out of this one alive — something that's been able to do in the past even with his warts.

On the flip side, there's just a slight chance that Sale is slowing down a bit as he nears 180 innings — a number he hasn't hit since 2017. He didn't look as crisp against the Reds in his last start, and if these walks persist, he could be in trouble with the way New York has drawn walks. He's also been a bit fortunate to limit the power in his four September starts, and the Mets have been one of the most dangerous teams in the league in the power department.

The Mets should pick up a crucial win here on their way to a potential playoff berth

Pick: Mets ML (+150)

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Moneyline

The Braves opened up as -188 favorites in this one, almost instantly shooting back up to -179 before a steady influx of cash pushed them far in the other direction to -190 at one point.

The line's settled back at -180 as of Wednesday morning despite some big money coming in on the Mets.

Run Line (Spread)

The Braves rank just 17th in the league with a 40-31 record as home favorites and sit 17th with a 28-43 record to the run line in these games. They're just 4-4 to the run line in their last eight games as favorites, with New York sitting 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games as underdogs.

Over/Under

After hitting the over in five straight, the Mets have seen the Under hit in their past two games.

Atlanta leads the league with a 67.1% hit rate to the under in its 71 games as home favorites this year.

• 84% of the bets and 44% of the money are on the Braves to cash the moneyline.
• 91% of the bets and 92% of the money are on the Braves to cover the run line.
• 63% of the bets and 56% of the money are on the over.

Mets Betting Trends

• The Mets are 3-2 in their past five games
• The Mets are 3-2 against the spread in their past five games
• The Mets are 40-36 against the spread in their past 76 road games
• The totals have gone Over in 3 of the Mets past five games
• The totals have gone Over in 42 of the Mets past 81 last games at home

Braves Betting Trends

• The Braves are 4-1 in their past five games.
• The Braves are 3-2 against the spread in their past five games
• The Braves are 40-41 against the spread in their past 81 road games
• The totals have gone Over in 1 of Braves past five games
• The totals have gone Over in 24 of Braves 76 last games at home