The Los Angeles Angels and New York Mets MLB interleague series continues on Saturday night with a pair of young arms on the mound at Angel Stadium.
For the Mets, it's southpaw David Peterson; for the Angels, it's flamethrowing right-hander Jose Soriano. It should be a fun series between two teams heading in different directions in the final 50-plus games of the year. The Mets, of course, are in the thick of the NL wild-card race while the Angels try to find some footing following another lost season for Mike Trout.
Read below for my Mets vs Angels predictions and picks.
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 9 -120o / +1000u | -135 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -120o / +100u | +115 |
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | RHP Jose Soriano (LAA) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.3 |
| 3.52/5.56 | ERA /xERA | 3.69/4.32 |
| 4.80/4.55 | FIP / xFIP | 4.05/3.99 |
| 1.47 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 1.7 | K-BB% | 2.0 |
| 53.4 | GB% | 59.2 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 97 | Location+ | 94 |
Sean Paul's Mets vs Angels Prediction Preview
Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview: Another Lost Mike Trout Season
What a tough week in Anaheim. The Angels traded their closer, Carlos Estevez, essentially waiving the white flag in yet another lost season. Not to mention, superstar Mike Trout once again is done for the year.
One of the few bright spots is Jose Soriano, the young starter taking the mound on Saturday. Soriano features a hard sinker (averages 99 mph) and that pitch directly leads to Soriano's elite 98th percentile ground ball rate.
I don't concern myself with hard-hit metrics on ground-ball pitchers. Some slight regression could come for Soriano since his 4.09 FIP is worse than his 3.69 ERA. However, I don't worry about metrics too much about hard-hit metrics for ground-ball pitchers. They want contact, and if a pitcher is throwing 99, it'll likely get hit with velocity. As long as it's on the ground, then it's a non-issue.
Of late, Soriano has dealt with some struggles, allowing 3+ runs in three of five starts. In Soriano's last start, he allowed six runs in 2+ innings in a win versus Oakland. It'll be a big test for Soriano squaring off against the surging Mets.
The lack of offensive success has plagued the Angels all year. They rank 21st in MLB with a 91 wRC+ against southpaws this year, which is pretty solid compared to their 81 wRC+ during July.
The trio of Zach Neto, Kevin Pillar and Luis Rengifo has destroyed lefties this year. Neto is hitting over .400 with a 187 wRC+ versus lefties, Pillar is next with a 186 wRC+ and Rengifo is sitting at 156 wRC+.
One of the major issues the Angels offense faces is that they don't walk — posting a 6.7 BB% against lefties — which ranks 27th in MLB. That'll have to change if the Angels want a chance to beat the surging Mets on Saturday.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Can the Offense Stay Hot?
David Peterson enters with a strong 3.52 ERA, but his 4.80 FIP suggests regression is on the brink.
In past years, Peterson was a big-time strikeout pitcher who struggled to find the zone, leading to a BB/9 rate above 4%. Now, Peterson's K/9 sits at a career-worst 7.21 (down from 10.38 last year), while his walk rate climbed to 4.36 (up from 4.05 last year.)
Just scrolling through Peterson's game log will show how often walks have been an issue for him. He's walked multiple batters in eight of his ten outings this year. I doubt the Mets rely on Peterson much longer if he can't figure things out soon.
The overwhelming question after a hot month is are the Mets actually good?
They're no fluke, as we're looking at one of the better offensive teams in baseball which should lead them right to wire for a potential NL wild card berth.
The Mets posted a 117 wRC+ in July, ranking sixth in baseball. The two biggest keys for recent offensive success for New York is Francisco Lindor (168 wRC+ in July) and Mark Vientos (146 wRC+ in July), who didn't even make the team in Spring Training. It's hard to find a clear weak link in the Mets lineup, as even Jose Iglesias and Harrison Bader have provided some strong moments with the bats in Queens.
Seven Mets hitters with at least 40 ABs posted a wRC+ over 100 in July. Everybody is pitching in (besides Brandon Nimmo) right now. Can you imagine what happens if Nimmo gets rolling while everyone else continues hitting? Scary sights for opposing pitchers.
One thing I look at to find great lineup is their walk and strikeout rate. The Mets are elite in both categories, ranking in the top 10 with a 8.5 BB% and and just outside the top 10 with a 21.5% strikeout rate.
New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's a matchup of two things I typically want to avoid betting on: Bad pitchers and bad offense, but something has to give here. I like the Mets draw here, as Soriano walks too many guys, and the Mets BB/9 is 8.2 this year. If they don't bite on Soriano's sinker early in counts, he'll walk a few batters. If Peterson can just get through five innings with three or fewer runs, then I love the Mets chances.
As I alluded to earlier, opposing offenses are doing Peterson favors if they don't draw out the count and generate walks. I just don't know if the Angels offense can get to Peterson via the walk, since walks aren't part of the Angels offensive formula.
Moreover, replacing Estevez has proven to be a tough ask for the Angels so far. With Estevez gone, Hunter Strickland assumed the closer's role and he instantly lost a game in his first save chance. Not to mention, the bullpen blew the game a few days prior to Strickland's implosion. They don't have a shutdown closer anymore, which gives the Mets chances even if they trail late.
Pick: Mets ML -132 |
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Moneyline
I'm taking the Mets in this spot.
They're 7-3 in their past ten games entering this series, while the Angels are just 5-5 in their past ten. Another issue the Angels have faced is performing well at home — with a 24-38 home record.
Another Mets bright spot is their success hitting in road games, posting 5.3 runs per game, which is second in MLB. Regardless of location, the Mets have hit the ball well in 2024.
Run Line (Spread)
It's a total pass on the run line here. I don't see much value in either side, as the Angels could strike for an early lead against Peterson, and the Mets may need to come from behind. The better play of the two is Mets -1.5 at +125, but I'm still avoiding it. I see zero value in middling with the Angels +1.5 at -145.
Over/Under
I'm leaning on the over here for a few reasons. You can grab over 9.5 (which is fairly high in an MLB game, but it's understandable) at +115 right now. I'd take it down to even odds.
- With the Mets success hitting in road games, and Peterson's potential regression, it could lead to big scoring output from both sides.
- According to statcast park factors, Angel Stadium is the sixth most hitter park in MLB, just behind some well-known band boxes like Coors Field, Fenway Park, and others.
