The Miami Marlins (45-78) will face the New York Mets (64-59) this Sunday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05 p.m. ET. The latest MLB odds list the Mets as -198 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o / -115u).
The Mets are officially in the most pivotal portion of their season, facing the Marlins, who off-loaded much of their roster a few weeks back. New York is one game away from sweeping a must-win home series. Let's get to my Mets vs. Marlins prediction for this afternoon.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-198 | 8.5 -105/-115 | -1.5 +108 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+166 | 8.5 -105/-115 | +1.5 -130 |
Mets vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Paul Blackburn (NYM) | Stat | RHP Valente Bellozo (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 4.43/4.60 | ERA /xERA | 2.28/3.02 |
| 4.53/4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 3.21/4.74 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 2.7 | K-BB% | 3.8 |
| 47.3 | GB% | 22.4 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 72 |
| 105 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul's Mets vs Marlins Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Sell High on Valente Bellozo
The main play for this series finale centers around fading Valente Bellozo. The rookie starter just shut down the Phillies over seven scoreless innings and extended his scoreless streak to 12 2/3 innings in the process. However, I'm looiing to get off the Bellozo train before it falls off the tracks.
Nothing about the Marlins' rookie screams "major league pitcher." He's just 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds, making him one of baseball's smallest starters. In addition to his stature, he throws about 88-to-91 mph, making him even more unique in the era of tall, hard-throwing pitchers.
Bellozo has managed to carve out a 2.28 ERA across nearly 30 MLB innings by keeping the ball in the ballpark and limiting walks. However, that seems a bit unsustainable given his track record in the minors.
Between the two levels, Bellozo allowed more than a hit per inning over 66 innings and has a 4.64 ERA. Hitters will eventually adjust and that could be to Bellozo's detriment.
Bellozo has allowed just two homers in his MLB career compared to the 10 he gave up in the minors. I don't believe he's suddenly solved his home run woes as he allows fly balls on more than 50% of batted balls. Certainly, some regression is due in that department.
Two of the Marlins' key bats — Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz — left as part of the deadline exodus, leaving the lineup in rough shape. They rank 23rd in MLB with a 93 wRC+ since the deadline and have a 27% strikeout rate. The only hitters who strike fear into opponents are Jake Burger, Jonah Bride and leadoff hitter Xavier Edwards. If Burger is the best hitter on a MLB roster, that speaks volumes about the team's current state.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Respect Francisco Lindor!
The Mets weren't overly active at the trade deadline, but one of their few newcomers, Paul Blackburn takes the hill Sunday. Blackburn started his career in New York strong, allowing just two runs in his first two starts before his former team, the Oakland A's, tagged him for six runs in an unkind reunion. The 30-year-old is the epitome of an innings eater. He throws six pitches more than 8.9% of the time and none more than 22.7% of the time. The ideal gameplan for Blackburn is to generate a bunch of soft-contact grounders and pitch deep into the game. He won't wow anybody with his stuff.
I'm looking to back a very hot Mets lineup. They scored four or more runs for a fifth straight game in their 4-0 win over the Marlins on Saturday.
The Mets' offense is tremendous in general, but even better against righties. They are tied for fourth in baseball with a 112 wRC+ versus righties this year.
Since August 17th, New York boasts the 10th-best wRC+ in baseball and are led by an unlikely source — Jeff McNeil. Early on, Mets fan wanted McNeil relegated to the bench, now he's selling out for more power, and it's changed his season. McNeil has hit seven of his 12 homers in the past month and is one of five Mets starters with a wRC+ above 140 in the past month.
Also, respect Francisco Lindor! He leads the NL in fWAR and is among the most consistent bats in the league since shifting to the leadoff spot. He won't be an easy out for Bellozo.
Two of Bellozo's rotation cohorts, Roddery Munoz and Max Meyer, got a recent taste of the Mets' ability to punish right-handed pitching. Munoz allowed five runs in five innings in the series opener, while Meyer allowed four runs in four innings in his start. Both have better pure stuff than Bellozo, so this may be a tough start for the rookie.
Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis: New York Run Line
The Mets pummeled the Marlins in the first two games of this series and won both by four runs. I think we'll see a similar performance in this game. I don't love Blackburn, but I trust the Marlins' bats even less and Bellozo is due for some major regression.
Pick: Mets -1.5 |
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Moneyline
I'm fine with the Mets moneyline up to -200. You're laying juice, but since I think the Mets cover the run line, the moneyline is a decent play if you don't mind the juice. Once it creeps over -200, it's a total pass for me.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm backing the Mets run line at plus money.
Over/Under
If I we're to play a total, I'd lean to the over. It's totally possible the Marlins land some hits against Blackburn, while the Mets' offense puts up a crooked number.
