Thanks to two postponed games, the New York Mets (87-70) are staring down a nightmare scheduling situation which would involve a double-header in Atlanta prior to the start of the Wild Card series next week. The Mets will have plenty of motivation to garner a series sweep against the Milwaukee Brewers (91-68) this weekend, as they'll want to save their top arms for a potential postseason series.
The Mets hold a 1-game lead over the Braves entering this 3-game set, and also hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. Sean Manaea's dominant second half has been a big reason that the Mets are still playing meaningful baseball, and he will take the mound today for New York versus Frankie Montas of Milwaukee, who has struggled of late.
Continue below for my Mets vs. Brewers prediction for Friday, September 27.
Mets vs Brewers Prediction
- Mets vs Brewers pick: Mets Moneyline (-118)
My Mets-Brewers best bet is on New York moneyline, where I see value at -118 down to -130. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Brewers Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 7.5 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +145 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-102 | 7.5 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -175 |
Mets vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) | Stat | RHP Frankie Montas (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-5 | W-L | 7-11 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.29/3.73 | ERA /xERA | 4.85/4.62 |
| 3.75/3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 5.26/3.30 |
| 1.06 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 17.0% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 37.6% | GB% | 41.6% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 97 | Location+ | 101 |
Nick Martin’s Mets vs Brewers Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Francisco Lindor Back in the Mix
The Mets hold a seventh best 3.47 team ERA since the All-Star break, which has powered a playoff push that once seemed highly unlikely. Manaea has been a big part of the story in pitching to a 3.09 ERA in that span, with a WHIP of just 0.87.
In his last five starts Manaea holds an ERA of just 2.36, and held opponents to a batting average of just .133. His underlying numbers throughout those outings have also been strong, as he has pitched to a 3.56 xFIP and a .204 xBA. In opposing team's last 174 plate appearances, batters have hit just .137 versus Manaea, and he's held them to a .191 xBA.
Opponents are hitting just .198 against Manaea this season, which is behind only Zack Wheeler and Ronel Blanco for the best mark of any qualified starter in MLB.
With Francisco Lindor back in the mix, the Mets lineup will be at close to full strength, as Jeff McNeil is the only notable position player on the IL. Over the last mont of play the Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 108 with a .730 OPS. They have hit to a wRC+ of 107 against right-handed pitching in the second half of the season.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Lacking Motivation?
While on paper, the Brewers have nothing to play for, having already clinched the NL Central, and being unable to catch the Phillies or Dodgers for first-round byes. Chances are Milwaukee won't stretch any starters overly far in this series and will limit innings to top relievers such as Devin Williams, but they could certainly benefit from winning these games and putting the Mets into a situation to pitch top arms on Monday.
Montas has struggled to a 5.49 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break, and holds an ERA of 5.81 in his last five outings.
His recent underlying results suggest he could be due for some improved results, however. In his last five starts he owns a K-BB% of 21.2, and a .231 xBA. He has stranded just 67.5% strand-rate, and allowed a 23.3% HR/FB in those starts. His Pitching+ rating of 101 is also better than league average.
The Brewers lineup has hit to a 17th ranked wRC+ of 95 over the last 30 days, and struck-out 25.3% of the time. Since the All-Star break they have hit to a wRC+ of 97 against left-handed pitching.
Over the last 30 days, the Brewers bullpen has pitched to a third-best ERA of 2.36, and holds a 28.4% strikeout rate. Their 3.17 bullpen ERA over the entirety of the season ranks second in MLB, but as noted it is possible top arms will be used sparingly in this series.
Mets vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Brewers will have plenty of motivation to play their best in this series and potentially force the Mets to burn their top arms on Monday, as well as enter the playoffs in strong form themselves. The narrative that Milwaukee will simply lay down in these games is not something I believe holds handicapping merit.
With that in mind, I still believe the Mets deserve to be a larger favorite than -118 because of their advantages in this specific matchup. Montas' underlying results suggest he is far better than his recent ERA portrays, but it still seems like a reach to think he has somewhat of an edge over Manaea.
In the splits relevant to this matchup, the Mets offense has been superior, and it has been the better unit all season long. At anything better than -130, I see value backing New York to win this game.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-118) at DraftKings
Moneyline
The Mets are 41-35 on the road this season, and 59-36 as a favorite.
The Brewers are 45-33 at home this season, and 37-30 as an underdog. The Brewers are 22-13 when priced between +101 and +149 this season (27.9% ROI).
Run Line (Spread)
The Mets are 40-36 ATS on the road, and 51-44 ATS as a favorite.
The Brewers are 42-36 ATS at home, and 32-28 ATS as an underdog. The Brewers are 22-13 when
Over/Under
Totals are 37-34-5 (O/U) when the Mets are on the road. Totals are 45-45-5 (O/U) when the Mets are a favorite.
Totals are 39-31-8 (O/U) when the Brewers are at home. Totals are 39-24-4 (O/U) when the Brewers are an underdog.
Mets vs Brewers Betting Trends
- 65% of the bets and 59% of the money is on the Mets moneyline.
- 81% of the bets and 83% of the money is on the over.
- 87% of the money and 97% of the bets is on the Mets to cover the spread.
Mets Betting Trends
- The Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- The Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The Mets are 40-36 in their road games against the spread
- The total has gone OVER in 3 of Mets' last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home
Brewers Betting Trends
- The Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- The Brewers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The Brewers are 43-38 in their road games against the spread
- The total has gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 39 of Brewers' 78 last games at home
