The New York Mets punched their ticket to the NL Wild Card Series with a thrilling victory over the Atlanta Braves in Monday’s doubleheader. Up next for the Mets is the Milwaukee Brewers, with Game 1 set for 5:30 p.m. ET at American Family Field; the game will be broadcast on ESPN and streamed on FUBO and MLB.TV.
Mets vs Brewers odds for Game 1 have the Brewers as -145 moneyline favorites and Mets as +120 moneyline underdogs; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs (-105o/ -115u). The Brewers are +155 to cover the run line (-1.5) while the Mets are +190 to cover (+1.5).
The Game 1 probable pitchers will be Luis Severino for the Mets and Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. Find my Wild Card Game 1 preview and Mets vs Brewers prediction and F5 pick for Game 1 on Tuesday, October 1, below.
Mets-Brewers Predictions
- Mets-Brewers picks: Mets F5 Moneyline (+114 | Play to +105)
My Mets vs Brewers best bet for Game 1 is on Mets F5 moneyline, where I see value at +114. The best line is available at DraftKings — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Predictions, Lines
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -190 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-145 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +155 |
- Mets-Brewers Moneyline: Mets +120, Brewers -145
- Mets-Brewers Total: Over/Under 7.5 runs (-105o / -115u)
- Mets-Brewers Spread: Mets +1.5 (-190), Brewers -1.5 (+155)
Game 1 Starting Pitchers for Mets-Brewers
| RHP Luis Severino (NYM) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 11-9 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.91 / 3.88 | ERA /xERA | 3.68 / 3.88 |
| 4.21 / 4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 4.16 / 3.93 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 18.2% |
| 46.0% | GB% | 36.7% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 101 | Location+ | 98 |
Mets vs Brewers Wild Card Game 1 Preview, Predictions
Mets Betting Preview: Offensive Improvement Needed
Severino will get the nod for the Mets tonight. He has 43 2/3 postseason innings pitched with the Yankees in his career, posting a 5.15 ERA in these appearances.
This season, Severino started 31 games for the Mets, pitching 182 innings with a 3.91 ERA and 161 strikeouts.
Severino has a 79th-percentile fastball velocity and a 107 Stuff+, but this has translated to just a 22nd-percentile whiff rate and a 34th-percentile strikeout rate this year.
Severino has a league-average walk rate, but excels at inducing ground balls and limiting hard contact.
He has a ground-ball rate that ranks in the 72nd percentile among qualified pitchers while ranking in the 75th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 82nd percentile in barrel rate allowed and 88th percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
New York’s offense ranks seventh in wRC+, eighth in wOBA, ninth in SLG and seventh in ISO for the year. It has a league-average strikeout rate and the eighth-best walk rate in the league.
In the second half of the season, the Mets have been just slightly worse on offense, ranking 10th in wRC+ and 12th in wOBA. This can largely be attributed to their increase in strikeout rate to 10th in the league.
The Mets rank fourth in hard-hit rate, fifth in barrel rate and seventh in average exit velocity this season. Their ground-ball rate ranks 16th in the league and they're fourth in line drive rate.
Brewers Betting Preview: Matchup Doesn't Favor This Offense
Peralta will be the Game 1 starter for Milwaukee. The 28-year old righty has had a strong season this year, posting a 3.68 ERA, 3.88 xERA and 3.78 SIERA over 173 2/3 innings.
In these innings, Peralta was able to hit the 200-strikeout milestone for the year. He has a Stuff+ of 103, a whiff rate ranking in the 86th percentile among qualified pitchers and a strikeout rate in the 81st percentile.
Peralta has struggled with his control as he has a Location+ of 98 and a 29th-percentile walk rate this year.
He has a 66th-percentile hard-hit rate allowed and a 79th-percentile average exit velocity allowed, but when he allows contact, it's typically elevated (28th percentile in barrel rate allowed and 20th percentile in ground-ball rate).
Milwaukee’s offense ranks 10th in wRC+, 10th in WOBA, 13th in SLG and fourth in OBP this season. It has the second-highest walk rate in the league and has a slightly worse-than-average strikeout rate at 18th.
The Brewers rank 20th in average exit velocity, 21st in barrel rate and 18th in hard-hit rate. These numbers have also been relatively consistent for them across the season, as they rank in that same range when looking at just second-half numbers.
Milwaukee has a 45.4% ground-ball rate this season, which is third-highest in the league. This will likely come into play today against Severino and his propensity to induce grounders.
In the second half of this season, the Brewers rank 17th in the league with a wRC+ of 100. Over this time, they're 15th in wOBA, 14th in SLG and also only 14th in OBP, despite still having the third-best walk rate in this time period.
This is because they have the eighth-highest strikeout rate over the second half of the season.
Mets vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Severino has been a solid pitcher this year and is aided by his ability to induce ground balls and weak contact.
He has a favorable matchup today against a Milwaukee team that hits the ball on the ground often and doesn’t make extraordinarily hard contact, which should play to his strengths on the mound.
Peralta is likely the better pitcher in this matchup, but the Mets have the tougher offense to face. Peralta should be able to rack up some strikeouts on New York, but he'll need to limit damage from walks and hard hits, as the Mets should have the advantage in this department.
I think that Severino will be able to turn in a strong outing here against this Milwaukee offense.
At +114, I like taking the Mets on the first five inning moneyline, as I think they'll either have a lead or be tied through the first half of this ball game.
Pick: Mets F5 ML (+114 | Play to +105)
Moneyline
Milwaukee ranks second in the league in bullpen ERA this season and seventh in bullpen FIP. The Mets are just 16th in bullpen ERA and 12th in FIP, but they have the edge in xFIP, ranking fifth compared to ninth for Milwaukee.
I think that the Mets have some value here as underdogs in this game, but I much prefer taking the F5 line rather than the full game moneyline to avoid the Brewers’ bullpen.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
The Brewers are 82-80 against the spread overall this season, but they're just 39-42 ATS at home. The Mets have been better ATS at home this year, as they're 42-38 ATS at home compared to 33-47 on the road.
I don’t have any play on the full game run line. Laying -185 with the Mets +1.5 is too steep for me, but I expect this to be a relatively close game. There are better bets to be had on this game, so I would stay away from this one.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
This season, Brewers' home games have gone 41-38-2 to the under. They've been an under team overall this season at 85-71-6.
The Mets have also been a strong bet to the under this season at 85-67-8 to the under on the year.
This total is already suppressed at 7.5 runs, but I would lean towards the under if I had to take either side of this. Neither team has an elite offense and both pitchers are set up to have respectable days.
With two above-average bullpens, as well, I think we could see this play out as a lower-scoring affair.
Pick: Lean Under 7.5
Mets-Brewers Betting Trends
- 76% of bets and 93% of the money is on the Brewers moneyline
- 71% of bets and 71% of the money is on the over (7.5)
- 81% of bets and 83% of the money is on the Brewers to cover the run line (-1.5)
Mets-Brewers Game 1 Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | American Family Field |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024 |
| Time: | 5:32 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | ESPN | FUBO | MLB.TV |
Mets vs Brewers Game 1 will take place at American Family Field in Milwaukee on Tuesday, October 1. The scheduled start time is 5:32 p.m. ET. The game can be watched on ESPN or streamed on FUBO and MLB.TV.
