The New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers are set to play a rare Wild Card Series Game 3 on Thursday night at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN — other viewing and streaming options include MLB.TV, FUBO and Sling TV.
Mets vs Brewers odds (via BetMGM) for Game 3 have the Brewers as -130 moneyline favorites and the Mets as +110 underdogs. The over/under is set at 7.5 (+100o / -120u). There is heavy juice on the Mets to cover the run line as they are -200 (+1.5) while the Brewers are +165 (-1.5).
Awaiting the winner of Wild Card Game 3 is the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series — but first we must get to my Mets vs Brewers predictions and picks for Game 3 Thursday, October 3.
Mets vs Brewers Game 3 Prediction
- My Mets vs Brewers Game 3 pick: Brewers First Five Moneyline (-120 | Play to -130)
My Mets vs Brewers best bet for Game 3 is on Milwaukee on the first five innings (F5) moneyline, where I see value at -120. The best line is available at FanDuel, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds, Prediction
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+110 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -200 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-130 | 7.5 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +165 |
- Mets vs Brewers Moneyline: Mets +110, Brewers -130
- Mets vs Brewers Total: Over/Under 7.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Mets vs Brewers Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-200), Brewers -1.5 (+165)
Game 3 Probable Starting Pitchers for Mets vs Brewers
| LHP Jose Quintana (NYM) | Stat | RHP Tobias Myers (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-10 | W-L | 9-6 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 3.75 / 4.49 | ERA /xERA | 3.00 / 4.11 |
| 4.56 / 4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 3.91 / 3.97 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 10.0% | K-BB% | 16.0% |
| 47.4% | GB% | 37.6% |
| 83 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
Mets vs Brewers Preview for Game 3
The Mets and Brewers aren't exactly rolling out aces for Wild Card Game 3 with Jose Quintana and Tobias Myers. With both teams possessing strong bullpens, we may not see them for long.
Mets Betting Preview
For the majority of Wednesday night's second Wild Card game between the Mets and Brewers, it was looking as though New York was going to advance.
The Mets took an early 3-1 lead and were holding steady at 3-2 heading into the bottom of the 8th. Phil Maton gave up two home runs in the inning to give the Brewers a 5-3 lead, and then the door was shut after Fransisco Lindor, Jose Iglesias and Jesse Winker all failed to get on base against Brewers closer Devin Williams.
On Thursday, the Mets will look to clinch their spot in the National League Division Series against the Phillies behind the efforts of starter Jose Quintana, who's had a strong season.
Questions will arise about if a player with an 83 Stuff+ is really what you want on the mound in a season-deciding game, and they are fair questions to ask. Quintana rates in the 15th percentile of swinging strike rate, and his 3.75 ERA might be above average but his 4.57 FIP is much more mediocre.
He also has a 78.2% left-on-base percentage, which rates in the top 25% of the league, and a .266 batting average on balls in play that rates in the top 20%. It's not a stretch to say he's gotten lucky this season.
One peculiar stat about Quintana from this season is that of his 22 home runs allowed, only 5 occurred on the road … maybe some of that variance changes a bit tonight, as theres no real reason for the disparity. It might also be a slower night on the base paths, as only nine steals have been attempted against the lefty all season.
The Mets offense will look to open things up a bit more than what they displayed on Wednesday, looking to accomplish more of what they did on Tuesday, when they put up eight runs even after playing a doubleheader in Atlanta the night before.
Tonight, with righty Tobias Myers on the mound for Milwaukee, the Mets will look to their core trio of Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and Pete Alonso to do the damage. They possess wRC+ vs RHP ratings of 136, 127, and 120, respectively. Each at least 20% better than the average major leaguer at creating runs against right-handed pitching.
The potential of the Mets lineup, combined with the probability of Quintana struggling in a big spot make me like the Over in this game, especially in the early going.
The Brewers do have a 40-33-8 O/U record when playing at home. I think we see scoring more like Game 1 than what occurred in Game 2.
Brewers Betting Preview
Jackson Chourio is only 20 years old! He's only legally been an adult for two years. He can't participate in the champagne celebrations should his team, which is named after the region's beer brewing history, clinch a spot in the NLDS with a win.
It's going to very likely make you feel old, or if you happen to also be 20 years of age, not great at sports. Maybe both! Nonetheless, Chourio's two home runs in Game 2, the second of which tied the game in the bottom of the 8th, were the driving factor to Milwaukee's win last night, and insanely impressive for a player of such a young age.
For Game 3, the Brewers will hand the ball to Tobias Myers, who's had a surprisingly solid first year in the big leagues. The rookie went 9-6 on the year with a 3.00 ERA. He limited walks at an above-average rate (6.3%) and his 81.1% left on base rate was in the top of the league.
He either locks in or got a bit lucky. The metrics lean toward luck a bit — with a swinging strike rate of just 10.5%, he ranks in the bottom quartile of the MLB in getting swings, but he was still average in generating strikeouts.
Myers faced the Mets behind an opener last Saturday, throwing four innings of shutout, one-hit ball in Milwaukee. Today, it appears Brewers management has more faith in Myers, and isn't putting Jared Koenig in front of him, and will let him face the top of the order to start the game.
Hopefully it goes equally well for the Brewers, but with having just seen the pitcher they're again facing, the advantage will likely go to the Mets' hitters.
It's a fair expectation that Milwaukee will be quick to pull its starter if things start to go awry. The Crew's bullpen is one of their major weapons and they'll lean on it if they have to. Myers already had a very low quality start rate because of the lack of innings he pitches — this is not someone who is going to go seven innings by any means.
The Brewers offense is likely to run though their All-Star catcher, William Contreras, who leads the team in weighted runs created against left-handed starters (like Quintana). The Brewers, as a whole, are right at the average in the MLB against southpaws, and have been a bit cold at the end of the season, as they always seem to be.
The Milwaukee curse of the lack of offense in the MLB playoffs has always been noteworthy, but this might be a great chance to turn the tide behind some big names and some young talent.
Look for Rhys Hoskins to be involved as well, and even Joey Ortiz. The Brewers are a strong 47-34 at home this season and an even stronger 54-37 when favored.
Mets vs Brewers Prediction & Moneyline Betting Analysis
There has been some movement in this game, most notably on the total.
The moneyline opened at -123 and sits at -130 on the consensus, though there are better numbers available. The total did open at 8 at some spots, but was very quickly moved down to Over 7.5 (+100), and is now at -115 for the same number.
That's pretty distinct movement, and if theres either a further dip or buy back late, it should be respected as sharp due to the volume that this game has. It is likely safe to assume that unless a major sharp move comes in, this game is mostly settled on its numbers, aside from a few cents here or there.
My pick is on the Brewers to jump on Jose Quintana early on. I just don't think his pitch quality is enough for this spot and that the Mets are in a bad spot having to start him.
I think his sinker sits over the plate far too much and the curveball has a scary chance to just not be working! Myers will be on a short leash and I trust the Brewers to manage a playoff situation more than the Mets, so take the Brew Crew to lead early.
Pick: Brewers F5 ML -120 (Play to -130 | FanDuel)
Moneyline
The Brewers are 47-34 at home this season and 54-37 when favored, which are great numbers when you're looking for reasons to back Milwaukee.
I'd argue all of that goes out the window, and 'when favored' numbers can sometimes illustrate some binary measurement as if how much teams are favored by isn't a crucial part of understanding their relationship with being profitable.
Nonetheless, all of the seasonal trends go out the window when it's one game. I tend to think these teams are very even, but with how we've seen the Wild Card unfold, the pitching wins out, and Milwaukee has the better pitching.
Myers is more reliable than Quintana, and the bullpens, though arguably even in the closer role, are an advantage to Milwaukee, which makes them my pick to win and move forward to meet Philadelphia.
Pick: Brewers F5 moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Each game so far has been decided by a big inning, and while neither has been a one-run game, they've been close.
With the total trending down in the market and the focus on both teams being to win, not win by multiple runs, I default to taking the away team plus the 1.5 runs in this scenario.
The bend-don't-break philosophy was exactly why I made the same call in yesterdays PadresBraves Game 2 preview, a one-run game is again very likely. And the Brewers are 43-48 as a favorite against the spread.
If you do the quick math against their 54-37 record as favorites, you'll get 11 of 54 games as favorites won by one run, a solid rate, but the playoff scenario and strategy is what adds value. Taking the +1.5 with the Mets is my lean for a spread play.
Pick: Lean Mets +1.5
Over/Under
The total is tough in this game.
The starters are subpar, but the ultimate nature of the third Wild Card game means that everyone will have a short leash — it will be all hands on deck to make sure that the opponent does not score. More likely than not, these do-or-die games go under, and that certainly seems to be the market consensus.
Here's my concern, though. We have a Mets team that has played four games in three days and Edwin Diaz threw 66 pitches between Sunday and Monday. That's a lot for a closer!
I think the Brewers could do well against the Mets bullpen and starter, and maybe even get this total home themselves in a shocking display. My lean is over, but I have the most value on the first five over and will likely play it, especially if the line keeps dropping.
Pick: Lean Over and F5 over.
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
- Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games.
Brewers Betting Trends
- Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Brewers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Brewers' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Brewers' 81 last games at home.
Mets vs Brewers Game 3 Viewing Info: Channel, Venue, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | American Family Field |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | ESPN | MLB.TV | FUBO | Sling TV |
