The New York Mets (89-73) look to close out the Milwaukee Brewers (93-69) in their NL Wild Card Series with ace, Sean Manaea, on the mound. I'm not so sure New York can get it done, however, as you'll find out in my Mets vs Brewers prediction for Game 2 below.
The Mets fell behind on two separate occasions in the series opener, but exploded in the fifth inning for five runs to eventually win 8-4. Because they had a big lead, they were able to preserve their bullpen after a Monday's doubleheader. Manaea got shelled in his last start against the Brewers, so he'll be out for revenge on Wednesday.
The Brewers have a daunting task after having their ace shelled and losing Game 1. Since 2020, the winner of the first game of the Wild Card Series has gone on to win the series 14 out of 16 times, and 13 of those were two-game sweeps. The Brewers' No. 1 weakness this season has been their starting rotation, so look for the bullpen to play a big part in this game.
Mets-Brewers Predictions
- Mets vs Brewers picks: Brewers Moneyline
My Brewers vs Mets best bet for Wild Card Game 2 on October 2 is the Brewers moneyline, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at DraftKings — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Brewers Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +167 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 7.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -200 |
Mets vs Brewers Game 2 Projected Starting Pitchers
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | Stat | Frankie Montas (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-6 | W-L | 7-11 |
| 2.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.47/3.75 | ERA /xERA | 4.84/4.71 |
| 3.83/4.04 | FIP / xFIP | 4.71/4.26 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 16.4% | K-BB% | 12.5% |
| 37.6% | GB% | 41.6% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 97 | Location+ | 101 |
Cunningham’s Mets vs Brewers Wild Card Game 2 Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Will Manaea Rebound?
Sean Manaea will take the mound for the Mets after surging toward the end of the season. He had his struggles over the first half of the season with his xFIP being at 4.29, but since the All-Star Break, he's down to only a 3.75 xFIP. The biggest change — by far — has been his command. He's lowered his walk rate from 10% to 6.8% and his Location+ rating has gone from 96 to 99. The other big change has been his sinker, which he throws more often and the Stuff+ rating on it has increased from 89 in the first half of the season to 104 in the second half.
The interesting part about this game is Manaea's last start of the regular season came against the Brewers and he got lit up for six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Manaea is very dependent on his sinker to set up the rest of his arsenal, but the Brewers were able to hit it hard.
It will be interesting to see how deep Carlos Mendoza lets Manaea go into this game. With the bullpen completely fresh, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mendoza turn to the 'pen at the first sign of trouble.
The Mets' offense doesn't have a lot of weaknesses and actually has a pretty good matchup against Frankie Montas.
Montas' main three pitches are a fastball, sinker and cutter, three pitches the Mets have crushed this season. The Mets are one of the few teams in these playoffs that finished with a wRC+ above 110 against both lefties and righties, which makes it harder for the Brewers bullpen to play matchups.
The Mets bullpen shut things down after going up by four runs and will be ready to go for Game 2. They've been really good down the stretch and have the fourth-best xFIP in baseball over the past 30 days.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Milwaukee Can Extend Series
Montas will get the ball for Game 2, but I wouldn't expect him to last very long in this game. Montas came over from the Reds and since he's been in Milwaukee, he's been much better. Since the trade deadline he has a 3.74 xFIP, which is almost a full run lower than when he was in Cincinnati. The biggest difference has been that he's getting a ton of swings and misses. In the month of September, his K/9 rate is at 14.05 after being below seven over the first two months of the season.
Milwaukee's offense came alive early against the Mets. The top of the order did most of the damage, but the 4-9 hitters combined for only two hits. They've been league average in terms of wRC+ against left-handed pitching, but shelled Manaea in his final regular-season start.
The Brewers won a lot of games with base running, defense and a strong bullpen. Out of all the teams in the playoffs, they had the best defensive rating and were second best in base running. The run game was held in check on Tuesday, but in the previous series against the Mets, the Brewers were 16-for-16 on steal attempts.
The Brewers have one of the best bullpens in baseball and I wouldn't be surprised to see them use it heavily on Wednesday. The finished the season top 10 in both xFIP and Pitching+, and that was with closer Devin Williams injured for a majority of the season.
Mets vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There is one way to frustrate Manaea, and that's to get guys on base. He's really good when he's pitching stress free, but once he allows base runners, he struggles.
With how good the Brewers' run game is, don't be surprised to see them try and steal on Francisco Alvarez time and time again, especially with how flustered Manaea gets when guys are on base. For the Brewers offense, it's going to come down to whether they can get to Manaea's sinker. They were able to do it less than a week ago and have a .353 xwOBA against left-handed sinkers on the season.
With the improvements that Montas has made since coming to Milwaukee, combined with having all of their top arms available and ready, this is pretty good matchup for the Brewers.
I have the Brewers projected at -118, so I like the value on Milwaukee to win Game 2 at -106.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline (-106 via FanDuel)
Moneyline
I'm betting the Brewers moneyline in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm not betting the Mets vs. Brewers run line.
Over/Under
I'm going to pass on the Mets vs. Brewers over/under.
Mets-Brewers Wednesday Weather Forecast
