The New York Mets (62-58) and Oakland Athletics (51-70) wrap their three-game interleague series on Thursday afternoon at Citi Field. First pitch for this rubber match is set for 1:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network.
Even though the Mets are the better team, and the fact that Brent Rooker is on the paternity list as of Wednesday, the A’s still have a few bats who can excel against lefties and provide a boost for them offensively. Find out how that factors into my Thursday Mets vs Athletics prediction and pick below.
Mets vs. Athletics Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +154 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -185 |
Mets vs Athletics Projected Starting Pitchers for Thursday
| LHP Jose Quintana (NYM) | Stat | RHP Mitch Spence (OAK) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-8 | W-L | 7-8 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 4.10/4.91 | ERA /xERA | 4.33/4.76 |
| 4.87/4.50 | FIP / xFIP | 4.21/4.12 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 10.5% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 45.2% | GB% | 48.2% |
| 83 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Mets vs Athletics Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Quintana the Weak Link
Jose Quintana has a 3.97 ERA in the second half, which isn't as sharp as Mitch Spence’s 2.78 ERA. He ranks in the 70th percentile in ground-ball rate and has a slightly better Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate than Spence, but his walk rate is 8.7% with a strikeout rate similar to Spence — under 20%. His chase rate is also worse, so there's a strong chance that Oakland can easily make contact in this matchup.
The Mets have a 107 wRC+, 9% walk rate, and 25% strikeout rate against righties in the past month. They have five active players above a .330 xwOBA in that timeframe off of righties. Their lineup is a bit deeper than Oakland’s, but the top of the Oakland lineup against the weaker starting pitcher could give the A’s an edge at the dish.
In relief, the Mets have fared well in the last month with a 3.50 ERA, 31% strikeout rate, and 10.6% walk rate. For as impressive as the swing-and-miss stuff is in the Oakland bullpen, New York can strike out more and has several reliable arms to back up Quintana. That said, this would not be much of an edge seeing how well Oakland’s relief corps has done lately.
Oakland Athletics Betting Preview: A's Pound Southpaw Pitchers
Spence has a 4.33 ERA and 3.76 xERA, so his positive regression in the second half was due. His Average Exit Velocity is a touch under 90 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 24th percentile, but his ground-ball rate ranks in the 75th percentile. His strikeout rate is nothing spectacular, but he's only walking 7% of batters, so the Mets will have to make something happen with hard contact on mistakes to score on him.
The A’s might miss Rooker for a couple of days, but in the last month against lefties, they have a 147 wRC+, 10.2% walk rate, and 23.4% strikeout rate. Plenty of that production has to do with Rooker hammering the ball, but they have four others above a .350 xwOBA who can get to Quintana — who is due for a bad outing on the bump.
The A’s have a decent bullpen. In the last month, they have a 3.81 xFIP with a 27.3% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate. Having Mason Miller, one of the best closers in the game at the back end is a boost. Six of their active relief arms are under a 4.00 xFIP. Even though Spence is pitching well, he has backup in the latter innings, if he needs it.
Mets vs Athletics Prediction, Betting Analysis
Look for the A’s to win this one outright by negating New York’s advantage in relief. The A’s also have the better starting pitcher and a comparable lineup, even without Rooker. The production on offense will come from the top of the order, but the A’s can be played from +142 to +110.
Pick: A's +142 (Play to +110) |
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