The New York Mets (80-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (88-58) open a three-game set on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch for this NL East clash is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game can be seen on MLB Network or ESPN+, but let's first dive into my Mets vs Phillies predictions and look at the latest MLB odds.
Every game is a must win for the Mets at this point as they enter Friday with a one-game lead over the Atlanta Braves (79-67) for the final NL wild-card spot. The Mets and Braves, notably, have a three-game series from Sept. 24-26.
Below I deliver my Mets-Phillies preview and break down probable starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Aaron Nola.
Mets-Phillies Prediction
Mets vs Phillies Picks: Over 8.5 (Play to 9)
My Mets-Phillies best bet is on the over, where I see value at 8.5. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets at Phillies Odds
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8 -118o / -102u | +130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8 -118o / -102u | -155 |
- Mets-Phillies Moneyline: Mets +130 | Phils -155
- Mets-Phillies Over/Under: 8 total runs (-118o / -102u)
- Mets-Phillies Run Line: Mets +1.5 (-162) | Phillies -1.5 (+136)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Mets-Phillies
| LHP José Quintana (NYM) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-9 | W-L | 12-7 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 4.09/4.64 | ERA /xERA | 3.41/3.85 |
| 4.89/4.65 | FIP / xFIP | 4.01/3.61 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 9.1% | K-BB% | 16.8% |
| 46.2% | GB% | 43.8% |
| 83 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 98 | Location+ | 105 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction & Previews
Mets Betting Preview: Aaron Nola in Trouble?
Quintana has a 4.09 ERA and 4.64 xERA this year. He limits his Average Exit Velocity to 88 mph with an above-average Hard-Hit Rate. He can keep the ball on the ground (76th percentile), but his strikeout rate is below 19%, while he walks more than 9%. He held a 5.63 ERA in August before a strong start against the Cincinnati Reds, but negative regression already looks like it is headed his way.
The Mets have a 106 wRC+, 8% walk rate, and 26.4% strikeout rate in the last month against righties. They have seven active bats with a .320+ xwOBA. Losing Jeff McNeil does not help with shoring up the lineup, but this team can still hit and could force Nola out of the game early.
The Mets’ relief staff owns a 4.15 xFIP, 12.1% walk rate, and 25.9% strikeout rate. That walk rate is exceptionally high, but New York still has five arms under a 4.00 xFIP. That said, Philadelphia has some patient hitters, so if they knock Quintana out of the game before the fifth inning, the Mets could struggle to fill the middle innings.
Phillies Betting Preview: Will Phils Crush Jose Quintana?
Nola has a 3.41 ERA against a 3.85 xERA, so he could see some more negative regression soon. He has a 5.06 ERA in two starts in September. His Average Exit Velocity is a touch above 88 mph, with an above-average Hard-Hit Rate, but the rest of his metrics are not too impressive. He is just slightly above average in ground-ball rate and strikeout rate, even if he can limit walks. The Mets have a ground-ball rate under 40% against righties in the last month, so this could give Nola issues.
At the dish, the Phillies have a league-best 140 wRC+ off lefties in the last month. They also have a 9.4% walk rate and 18.2% strikeout rate. Walking often and not striking out seems like a nightmare scenario for Quintana. In addition, Philly touts six bats above a .310 xwOBA with multiple bats above .400. This lineup is patient and can manufacture runs at any time.
In relief, Philadelphia has a 3.81 xFIP, 7.9% walk rate, and 24.1% strikeout rate. They have five arms under a 4.00 xFIP, but since New York has shown they can hit either handed pitcher, this may not be a favorable matchup for the Phillies' bullpen either.
Mets-Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis on Over/Under
Look for the over to hit in this game.
Both lineups have injuries to key players, but they are still deep enough to manufacture runs against starting pitchers that are due for a bad game. Philadelphia can walk and drive up both Quintana’s and the Mets’ relief staff’s pitch counts. If the Mets get to Nola early, the Phillies’ relief edge will not matter. Play the over from 8.5 to 9.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Play to 9)
Moneyline
I'm passing on the Mets vs. Phillies moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm passing on the Mets vs. Phillies run line.
Over/Under
I'm betting the Over 8.5 in this game.
Mets-Phillies Betting Trends
- 83% of bets and 55% of the money are on the Phillies moneyline.
- 88% of bets and 89% of the money are on the total (8.5) to go OVER.
- 95% of bets and 85% of the money are on the Phillies to cover the run line (-1.5).
Mets Betting Trends
- The Mets are 3-2 in their last five games.
- The Mets are 2-3 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Mets are 38-34 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone Over in one of the Mets' last five games.
Phillies Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 3-2 in their last five games.
- The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five games against the spread.
- The Phillies are 33-38 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone Over in three of the Phillies' last five games.
Mets-Phillies Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park |
| Date: | Friday, September 13, 2024 |
| Time: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | MLB Network (out-of-market viewers) | NBC Sports Philadelphia | WPIX |
Mets-Phillies Key Injuries
Mets Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 2B/OF Jeff McNeil | Right wrist fracture (10-day IL) |
| RHP Christian Scott | Right elbow UCL sprain (15-day IL) |
| RHP Paul Blackburn | Lower back discomfort (10-day IL) |
| RHP Kodai Senga | Left calf strain (60-day IL) |
Phillies Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 3B Alec Bohm | Left hand strain (10-day IL) |
| INF Edmundo Sosa | Back spasms (10-day IL) |
| OF Austin Hays | Kidney infection (10-day IL) |
Mets-Phillies Weather Forecast for Friday
