NL East rivals, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, are set to clash on Saturday, Oct. 5, for NLDS Game 1. First pitch is set for 4:08 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Mets got their first day off in a long time after outlasting the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Series. They’ll be back with a new wrinkle for NLDS Game 1, as Kodai Senga gets the surprise start against Zack Wheeler and the Phillies.
Find my NLDS preview and Mets vs Phillies prediction for Saturday below.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies pick: Under 7.5 (-130)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet for NLDS Game 1 is Under 7.5 (-130). The best line is available at ESPN Bet, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+145 | 7.5 +110 / -130 | +1.5 -155 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-175 | 7.5 +110 / -130 | -1.5 +130 |
Mets vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) | Stat | RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 (1 start; 5 1/3 innings) | W-L | 16-7 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.4 |
| 3.38 / 4.80 | ERA /xERA | 2.57 / 2.81 |
| 3.35 / 1.77 | FIP / xFIP | 3.13 / 3.30 |
| 0.56 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 40% | K-BB% | 21.9% |
| 22.2% | GB% | 42.6% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 102 | Location+ | 104 |
Mike Ianniello’s Mets vs Phillies Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Kodai Senga Out of Nowhere
The Mets have been playing meaningful games for months and have been labeled a “Team of Destiny.”
Now, I’m not sure if the team with the highest payroll in MLB ($317 million) can be called a team of destiny, but they are having fun regardless.
New York went 17-9 in September and won a wild back-and-forth game against the Braves to clinch a wild-card spot. It beat Milwaukee in Game 3 of the Wild Card series with a heroic, come-from-behind home run in the top of the ninth inning from Pete Alonso. Now, they will face their division rival for the first time in a playoff series.
Mets manager Carlos Mendoza surprised the baseball world when he announced that Kodai Senga would return to start Game 1. Senga has made just one MLB start all season, back on July 26.
Senga missed the start of the season with a right shoulder capsule strain. He worked his way back into the Mets rotation, only to suffer a left calf strain and miss the remainder of the regular season. He made one rehab appearance in Triple-A Syracuse back on Sept. 21, but only worked one inning.
As a rookie last season, Senga was terrific and earned an All-Star nod. He went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA across 29 starts and he finished second in the NL in ERA.
Senga has a terrific fastball-cutter-splitter combination. His splitter generated a strikeout rate of 58.5% last season.
Led by MVP candidate Fransico Lindor, New York’s offense finished seventh in wRC+. The Mets also finished top 10 in scoring and hit the sixth-most home runs. Lindor finished the year ranked sixth in WAR and hit 33 home runs with an .844 OPS.
Lindor has continued to come up clutch when the team needs him most. In addition to Lindor, Jose Iglesias finished the season on fire at the plate, Starling Marte had really good at bats against the Brewers, and Alonso is coming off the biggest home run of his career.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Zack Wheeler Gives Phils Edge
Philadelphia came out of the gates at an historic pace. It took control of the NL East in the first week of May and never looked back. However, a disappointing second half cost them the top seed in the NL.
The terrific first half gave the Phillies enough wiggle room, but they went just 33-33 over the second of the season. The lineup cooled down, the bullpen was inconsistent, and issues at the back end of their rotation continued to bite them.
The Phils have won 19 playoff games over the last two seasons. This team has been right on the cusp for the last three seasons and appears ready for another deep run, but they will need to flip a switch and turn things up a notch.
For all the ups and downs of the Phillies' season, Zack Wheeler was not one of them.
The Philadelphia ace was brilliant, finishing with a 2.57 ERA, a new career low. He went 16-7 in 32 starts and he got even better as the season went on, finishing the year with a 1.99 ERA over his last seven starts.
What really needs to be said about Wheeler at this point? He is arguably the best pitcher in the National League. He posted a 2.81 xERA and allowed just a .200 xBA and .264 xwOBA to opponents. He had a 28.5% strikeout rate and rarely allowed hard contact.
Wheeler throws one of the games best fastballs in the upper 90s and his sinker is working better than ever. Opponents managed just a .189 average against it this year and struggled to make solid contact against the offering. He has been brilliant in the playoffs throughout his career and will be a tall task for the Mets offense.
Don’t let some recent form lull you to sleep on how dangerous this Phillies lineup can be. They finished the year fifth in scoring and fourth in wOBA and they had five players with an OPS above .750. That doesn’t include Nick Castellanos, who was playing his best ball to end the season.
Bryce Harper remains one of the best hitters in baseball and Kyle Schwarber had his best overall season with the Phillies. He didn’t hit as many home runs but was a better overall hitter.
Trea Turner and Alec Bohm were streaky and inconsistent, but when they get hot, look out.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
This game is extremely hard to handicap due to all of the uncertainty around Senga.
He has pitched 5 1/3 innings all season, and he has not pitched since July 26. He has all the talent in the world, but to just get dropped into a postseason game — in Philadelphia of all places — is a brutal ask.
I think the most likely outcomes are either Senga is brilliant and tosses something like six scoreless innings, or he gets absolutely rocked and he doesn’t make it through two innings.
There are a lot of narratives about teams coming off a first-round bye starting slow. Three of the four bye teams in last year’s postseason lost in Game 1 and went down early as they struggled to shake off the rust.
Even if the Phillies' bats do come out of the gates slow, I find it difficult to envision Wheeler allowing too much damage. He was phenomenal down the stretch and has been terrific in the postseason.
If you can find a 7.5 out there, I like this game to stay under the total. I trust Wheeler to go out and do his job while a rusty Phillies lineup could be exactly what Senga needs to get back into rhythm.
My biggest fear is a quick Senga blowup, but with a day off and fully rested bullpen, the Mets should have a very short leash on him with Tylor Megill or David Peterson ready to provide bulk innings at the first sign of trouble.
This could end up a sweat early, but if Senga starts off in form, I like these two pitchers to keep the offenses at bay and keep this total under 7.5.
Pick: Under 7.5
Moneyline
I think Philadelphia wins this game more often than not, but I'm not willing to lay the -175 price given the uncertainty of a Game 1 and some of the rust we saw last season.
Pick: Pass.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on either side of the run line.
Pick: Pass.
Over/Under
I like the total to stay under 7.5 with Wheeler on the mound for Philadelphia and Senga returning for the Mets.
Pick: Bet Under 7.5.
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Phillies' 81 last games at home
Mets vs Phillies Weather
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