The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets in Game 2 of this NL Division series on Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:08 p.m; the game will be broadcast on FS1.
With a 1-0 series lead in hand, New York is set to hand the ball to right-hander Luis Severino. Philadelphia will counter with left-hander Cristopher Sanchez as it tries to level the series.
You can find my Mets vs Phillies prediction and the latest Game 2 odds for Sunday, October 6, below.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies picks: Phillies -1.5 (+145 | Play to +140)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet for NLDS Game 2 is on Philadelphia's run line (-1.5), where I see value at +145. The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -155 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +130 |
Mets vs Phillies Game 2 Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Severino (NYM) | Stat | LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | W-L | 11-9 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.7 |
| 3.91 / 3.88 | ERA /xERA | 3.32 / 3.51 |
| 4.21 / 4.12 | FIP / xFIP | 3.00 / 3.19 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 14.5% |
| 46.3% | GB% | 58.3% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 101 | Location+ | 103 |
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Tony Sartori's Mets vs Phillies Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Can Severino Bounce Back?
Severino is not a bad pitcher by any means, but he is simply the inferior pitcher in this matchup. Sanchez outranked Severino in ERA, xERA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate this season.
Severino also struggled in his first appearance this postseason, allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits and two walks over six innings against the Brewers in the Wild Card Series. He's now allowed three or more runs in four consecutive starts, posting a 5.32 ERA over that stretch.
Two of those starts came against Philadelphia, a team that boasts a .439 xSLG against Severino through 70 combined career plate appearances.
Speaking of hitting, that is yet another disadvantage for New York in this matchup. The Phillies outrank the Mets in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Sanchez the Phils' Stopper
Sanchez should be able to take care of business. He made 31 starts this season and went 11-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong as the southpaw finished in the 70th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against New York, a team Sanchez is 2-0 against over his last five meetings, with a 2.81 ERA.
Following Sanchez is a trustworthy bullpen that ranks 10th in FIP and sixth in xFIP.
This pitching staff should also receive plenty of run support, considering that the Phillies rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
While the Mets pulled off the upset in Game 1, I expect a bounce-back performance from the Phillies in Game 2.
Philadelphia is the superior team across the board — better starting pitcher, stronger lineup and an equal bullpen, at worst. Add in the home-field adcvantage, and I think this series goes back to New York all squared.
Finally, I see more value in Philadelphia's run line at +145 rather than laying -150 on the moneyline.
Ten of the Phillies' past 13 wins have come by two or more runs, while 10 of the Mets' past 11 losses have come by at least a two-run margin.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+145 at BetMGM | Play to +140)
Moneyline
While I like Philadelphia to even up the series, I have no interest in laying -150 on its moneyline to do so.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
I'm betting Phillies -1.5.
Pick: Bet Phillies -1.5
Over/Under
I don't have an interest in targeting the total in a game that features both the Phillies' powerhouse lineup and Sanchez getting the start.
Pick: Pass
Mets Betting Trends
- The totals have gone UNDER in 3 of Mets' last 5 games
Phillies Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone UNDER in 45 of Phillies' 81 last games at home
Mets vs Phillies Weather Forecast for Sunday
Get the latest coverage on our MLB Weather page.
