Game 2 of an important three-game set between the New York Mets (81-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (88-59) will take place on Saturday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park.
New York recorded a huge 11-3 win in the series opener, but saw MVP candidate Francisco Lindor leave the game due to back tightness. Lindor is not in the starting lineup for the Mets on Saturday afternoon; top prospect Luisangel Acuna was recalled and is playing shortstop and batting ninth.
Luis Severino will start for the Mets looking to build on a dominant run of play. Severino will be opposed by Kolby Allard, who was recalled from Triple-A earlier this week to make a spot start in this matchup. Continue below for my Mets vs Phillies prediction and F5 pick for Saturday, September 14.
Mets-Phillies Predictions
- Mets-Phillies picks: Mets F5 Moneyline (-114)
My Mets-Phillies best bet for Saturday is on Mets first five innings moneyline, where I see value at -114 down to -120. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-110 | 9 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +143 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-110 | 9 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -170 |
- Mets-Phillies Moneyline: Mets -110 | Phillies -110
- Mets-Phillies Over/Under: 9 total runs (+100o / -120u)
- Mets-Phillies Spread: Mets -1.5 (+143) | Phillies +1.5 (-170)
Mets at Phillies Probable Starting Pitchers for Saturday
| RHP Luis Severino (NYM) | Stat | LHP Kolby Allard (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 3.74/3.90 | ERA /xERA | 3.50/4.51 |
| 4.14/4.18 | FIP / xFIP | 5.67/3.91 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 12.7% | K-BB% | 15.1% |
| 45.9% | GB% | 51.7% |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 70 |
| 100 | Location+ | 108 |
New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies Preview
Mets Betting Preview: Is NY Playoff Bound?
The Mets stayed hot with their 16th win in the last 21 games, a run which has boosted their playoff chances up to 59.7% per FanGraphs. Those chances would take a significant hit if the NL's WAR leader Lindor was to remain out of the lineup, but it sounds like they may have avoided disaster on that front.
Lindor was nicked up sliding in to second base in the top of the sixth inning yesterday. He played out the bottom of the inning defensively before exiting, but it was 7-0 and Lindor stated postgame that he would have tried to push it if the game was closer. He is listed as day-to-day ahead of this matchup.
Allard gets a tough matchup here as he returns from Triple-A given the Mets recent offensive play. Since August 1, the Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 121 against left-handed pitching with an OPS of .779. They rank seventh in BB/K in that span, and fifth in hard-hit rate.
Jose Iglesias has helped fill the void left by Jeff McNeil, as he has batted .324 since September 1.
In Severino's last 42 1/3 innings pitched, he has pitched to an ERA of 3.19 with an xFIP of 3.40. He has also struck-out 10.20 batters per nine and allowed an xBA of .243 during that span.
Phillies Betting Preview: Fade Kolby Allard?
The Phillies lineup is close to getting a big boost of their own, as Alec Bohm will begin a rehab assignment in Lehigh Valley today. They have remained in strong form offensively with a wRC+ of 113 since August 1, although that is heavily carried by their league leading wRC+ against lefties.
Versus righties, the Phillies have been far more average, with a 14th ranked wRC+ in that span. They also rank 24th in that span in BB/K, and seventh in hard-hit rate.
Allard's overall arsenal does not grade out overly well (70 Stuff+), and his low velocity fastball has been getting crushed at the MLB level, albeit in a small sample. Batters hold a .632 slug-rate versus Allard's four-seamer, with a .608 xSLG. He has been hard-hit 44.8% of the time overall, and allowed a zone-contact rate of 90.1%.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis: Bet on New York
The Mets should have a pitching advantage in the Severino versus Allard innings, before the Phillies lead into some of their strong relief arms. For a relatively large sample, the Mets offense has been one of the best in the league against left-handed pitching, while the Phillies splits against righties are far more modest.
If Lindor is in the lineup, the Mets deserve to be a favorite in the early innings of this matchup. At anything better than -120, I see value backing New York to stay hot in this game, or at least early on in the Severino versus Allard innings.
Pick: Mets First Five Innings Moneyline (-114, especially if Lindor is in lineup)
Moneyline
The Mets are 41-32 on the road this season (Best win % in NL East). The Phillies are 50-26 at home this season (Best home win % in MLB).
Run Line (Spread)
The Mets are 39-34 against the spread on the road and 78-69 against the spread overall. The Phillies are 36-40 against the spread at home and 69-78 against the spread overall.
Over/Under
Totals are 36-32-5 (O/U) in Mets' road games this season. Totals are 33-39-4 (O/U) at Citizens Bank Park this season. Totals are 20-6-2 (O/U) when Philadelphia is an underdog this season.
Mets-Phillies Betting Trends
- 57% of the bets and 41% of the money is on the Phillies moneyline.
- 90% of the bets and 90% of the money is on the over.
- 55% of the money and 58% of the bets are on the Mets to cover the spread.
Mets Betting Trends
- The Mets are 8-2 in their last ten games
- The Mets are 7-3 in their last ten road games
- Totals are 5-4-1 (O/U) in the Mets last ten games
- The Mets are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games
Phillies Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten games
- The Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten home games
- Totals are 6-4 (O/U) in the Phillies last ten games
- The Phillies are 4-6 against the spread in their last ten games
